Ahmed Jamal Pirzada

senior lecturer, University of Bristol

Compiled from 1 recorded interview. Every statement below is drawn from the passage cited beside it.

Ahmed Jamal Pirzada is a Senior Lecturer and School Resource Director at the University of Bristol. He has co-authored a paper in which he worked out productivity figures. He has said that Pakistan's external debt due over the next 12 months is about 26 billion dollars, and that default is a choice.

Views on external debt

Pirzada has said that the 26 billion dollar payment equals about 35 to 40 percent of Pakistan's dollar income. He has said Pakistan is running a surplus of about 5 billion dollars a year. He has said the surplus is driven by a slowdown intentionally caused in the economy. He has also said Pakistan's exports were driven by India's ban on its own food exports, which brought in about 2 billion dollars or a bit more. [1]

Pirzada has said that Pakistan's domestic debt burden relative to revenue is probably one of the highest, if not the highest. He has said that much of the country's debt is tied to geopolitics rather than to market views of the country. He has described Pakistan's debt as now much more complex, owed to the GCC, China and the Paris Club. He has said Pakistan has maxed out its swap arrangement with China, and that expected GCC support was revised down from 80 billion dollars to 2 billion. [1]

Pirzada has said that Pakistan's current situation looks very similar to 1998 to 2001 on the aggregate numbers. He has said that debt servicing owed mostly to the Paris Club was extended by about 15 years at that time. He has said debt repayments fell during COVID while the country's reserves rose. He has said investors were taking money out of emerging economies and COVID spread a lot of panic. In his account, things went wrong when Pakistan used fiscal stimulus from mid-2022. [1]

Views on default and restructuring

Pirzada has said that as an economist he frames default versus restructuring as a question of whether the cost is worth it. He has cited Greece as an example of a country that chose to choke its economy to an extent. He has also cited an economist described as a big shot in the field as saying that countries are often better off defaulting than otherwise. He has said governments avoid restructuring because of the political cost of being seen to have bankrupted the country. [1]

Pirzada has said a haircut would reduce the total amount of debt owed. He has said restructuring over a longer term can reduce the net present value of debt. He has said Pakistan is not in the low-income country category, which makes restructuring more complicated. He has said Pakistan would be pushed to restructure domestic debt as well as external debt. He has criticised the lending institutions for providing a bit of risk insurance. [1]

Pirzada has said the IMF has systematically over-projected inflows from the rest of the world in its staff agreements. He has said he suspects the IMF uses wrong figures for private creditor inflows. [1]

Pirzada has said Pakistan will need reforms over the long term, and that he sees little reform happening in the country. He has said there has been a search for someone from outside to bail the country out, so that things can continue for another 5 to 10 years. He has said that sovereign guarantees of an unusual kind were given, and that a new crisis has arisen because of them. He has also said that a very good opportunity was wasted in the past for strategic reasons. [1]

Views on exchange rates and reserves

Pirzada has said the rupee would have to depreciate if Pakistan's prices rise faster than US prices. He has said Pakistan's real effective exchange rate has been fairly flat for a long period. He has said long-term competitiveness needs the currency kept undervalued systematically, as China did. He has said that, if forced to choose, he would favour keeping the currency undervalued systematically. [1]

Pirzada has said undervaluation works by accumulating inflows as reserves rather than spending them. He has said China saved its foreign inflows as dollar reserves. He has said reserves work as a form of insurance. [1]

Views on growth, productivity and trade

Pirzada has said the trend of Pakistan's economy is between 3 and 4 percent. He has said Pakistan has had far more boom and bust cycles than other countries since the 1990s. He has said that, in a period he described as not very good for the structure of the economy, the investment rate and the export-to-GDP ratio were falling. He has said machines are not installed because investors have no confidence about what will happen. [1]

Pirzada has said he does not think policy continuity is lacking, since protection has been provided from the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s onwards. He has said Pakistan cut tariffs in the 2000s but political economy pushed protection back up. He has said almost 40 percent of Pakistan's labour force works in agriculture, the least productive sector. He has said affordable land in urban centres, or closer to urban centres, is needed, and that money and land are tied up in real estate. [1]

Pirzada has said studies show about half of exports depend on the quality of contracting institutions. He has said more complex production needs more contractual arrangements. [1]

Views on politics and change

Pirzada has said he thinks Pakistani voters are very wise, and that a common person is more intelligent than many educated people. He has cited the health insurance policy of the PTI government in KP as an example, and said voters protested when KP's health insurance was taken away. He has said Pakistan's ethnic diversity means many groups need representation. [1]

Pirzada has said the military has very significant business interests in real estate, food and fertilizer. He has said the disruptive political system is at the root of repeated balance of payments crises. He has said Pakistan has reached a point where the inevitability of change can no longer be argued. He has also said change is very hard to predict, and that change is often deadly and difficult. [1]

Pirzada has said business as usual cannot continue in Pakistan. He has said a growing resentment among the population will force some form of change. He has said a question is whether elites decide to give up power and share it more equally with the growing population. He has said power should be shared in a way that is compatible with the constitution. [1]

Appearances

DateTitleWhere
2024-08-05 Default is a choice: inside Pakistan's $26 billion debt squeeze Thought Behind Things

Frequently asked questions

Who is Ahmed Jamal Pirzada?

Ahmed Jamal Pirzada is a Senior Lecturer and School Resource Director at the University of Bristol. He has co-authored a paper in which he worked out productivity figures.[1]

What does Ahmed Jamal Pirzada do?

Ahmed Jamal Pirzada holds the posts of Senior Lecturer and School Resource Director at the University of Bristol. He has also co-authored a paper in which he worked out productivity figures.[1]

What has Ahmed Jamal Pirzada said about Pakistan's external debt?

Pirzada has said that Pakistan's external debt due over the next 12 months is about 26 billion dollars. He has said this payment equals about 35 to 40 percent of Pakistan's dollar income. He has also described Pakistan's debt as now much more complex, owed to the GCC, China and the Paris Club.[1]

What does Ahmed Jamal Pirzada say about default?

Ahmed Jamal Pirzada has said that default is a choice. He has said that as an economist he frames default versus restructuring as a question of whether the cost is worth it. He has also said governments avoid restructuring because of the political cost of being seen to have bankrupted the country.[1]

What is Ahmed Jamal Pirzada's view on the exchange rate?

Ahmed Jamal Pirzada has said long-term competitiveness needs the currency kept undervalued systematically, as China did. He has said that, if forced to choose, he would favour that approach. He has also said the rupee would have to depreciate if Pakistan's prices rise faster than US prices.[1]

What has Ahmed Jamal Pirzada said about the IMF?

Ahmed Jamal Pirzada has said the IMF has systematically over-projected inflows from the rest of the world in its staff agreements. He has said he suspects the IMF uses wrong figures for private creditor inflows.[1]

What does Ahmed Jamal Pirzada say about change in Pakistan?

Ahmed Jamal Pirzada has said business as usual cannot continue in Pakistan. He has said a growing resentment among the population will force some form of change. He has also said change is very hard to predict.[1]

References

  1. Default is a choice: inside Pakistan's $26 billion debt squeeze . Thought Behind Things , 2024-08-05.
Show the source passages (66 statements)
  1. He is the Senior Lecturer and School Resource Director at the University of Bristol. Ahmed J. Pirzada is the Senior Lecturer and School Resource Director at the University of Bristol.
  2. He has co-authored a paper in which he worked out productivity figures. The productivity numbers which I worked out in the paper which I with my other co-authors um uh together, they are pretty low
  3. He has said Pakistan's external debt due over the next 12 months is about 26 billion dollars. Agar aap abhi dekho ki aapne external debt agle saal mein, agle 12 mahine mein kitna dena hai, that's around 26 billion.
  4. He has said the 26 billion payment equals about 35 to 40 percent of Pakistan's dollar income. Woh 26 billion yeh banta hai takreeban 35 se 40 feesad aapki jo dollar income hai
  5. He has said Pakistan is running a surplus of about 5 billion dollars a year. over a year aap you are basically generating a surplus defined as such of around 5 billion
  6. He has said the surplus is driven by a slowdown intentionally caused in the economy. That's very much driven by the slowdown which you have basically intentionally caused in the economy.
  7. He has said Pakistan's exports were driven by India's ban on its own food exports, which brought in about 2 billion dollars or a bit more. Exports was very much driven by jo India ne apne food exports pe ban lagaya, uski wajah se we ended up getting few I think 2 billion dollars a bit more.
  8. He has said Pakistan's domestic debt burden relative to revenue is probably one of the highest, if not the highest. Pakistan stands out jiska domestic debt burden as a proportion of their revenue is probably one of the highest if not the highest.
  9. He has said default is a choice. Again, we talk about default, again it's very important to keep in mind, default is a choice.
  10. He has said debt repayments fell during COVID while Pakistan's reserves rose. aapke jo debt repayments hain usmein kami to definitely aayi thi and it was very significant. Lekin at the same time if you look at the numbers aapke reserves bhi increase hue the.
  11. He has said things went wrong when Pakistan used fiscal stimulus from mid-2022. Where things really went wrong was when you ended up on the fiscal stimulus side moving into the mid of 2022 and that going forward.
  12. He has said Pakistan's current situation looks very similar to 1998 to 2001 on the aggregate numbers. So let's not forget ki jo aaj hamari situation hai if you only focus on the aggregate numbers, this is very similar to the situation we had in 1999 or 1998 moving all the way into 2001.
  13. He has said that debt servicing owed mostly to the Paris Club was extended by about 15 years at that time. jo aapki sari debt servicing thi mostly due to Paris Club at the time, woh that was that got extended by about 15 years or so at the time.
  14. He has said investors were taking money out of emerging economies and COVID spread a lot of panic. investors were taking money out of emerging economies, COVID also spread a lot of panic.
  15. He has said much of Pakistan's debt is tied to geopolitics rather than to market views of the country. it's not that the investor or the market is lending to you depending or based on their projections about your future. A lot of this debt is very much tied to geopolitics.
  16. He has said Pakistan has maxed out its swap arrangement with China. China ke saath aapne swap lines un arrangement mein chale gaye aur woh aapne max out kar di hain
  17. He has criticised the lending institutions for providing a bit of risk insurance. That's where I criticize the lending institutions kyunki woh aapko they provide you a bit of a risk insurance
  18. He has said Pakistan will need reforms over the long term. I think over the long term woh to aapko reforms to karni hi karni hain.
  19. He has said a haircut would reduce the total amount of debt owed. One is a haircut, jismein let's say you say achha yaar mera total debt let's say it's 100 billion, we are going to bring it down to let's say 90 billion, 80 billion, something like that.
  20. He has said restructuring over a longer term can reduce the net present value of debt. you spell it over a longer term to uski jo present value hai woh kam ho jayegi. Isko woh net present value bhi kehte hain.
  21. He has said Pakistan is not in the low-income country category, which makes restructuring more complicated. Pakistan fortunately, unfortunately does not fall in the category of low income countries, so it makes the process even more tricky
  22. He has said Pakistan would be pushed to restructure domestic debt as well as external debt. Pakistan falls in the upper classification which means ki agar hum table pe jayenge to we will be asked to not just restructure our uh against the external debt ki restructuring ke against they'll also push us to also go and get the local debt restructured.
  23. He has said that as an economist he frames default versus restructuring as a question of whether the cost is worth it. The point as an economist is more along the lines of, is it worth it?
  24. He has cited Greece as an example of a country that chose to choke its economy to an extent. then you can choke it to an extent, jis tarah Greece ne kiya.
  25. He has cited an economist described as a big shot in the field as saying that countries are often better off defaulting than otherwise. Uh, Rogoff, he's a big shot in in in in this field. He very explicitly says, there are often conditions where the country is actually better off defaulting than otherwise
  26. He has said governments avoid restructuring because of the political cost of being seen to have bankrupted the country. So, no one wants that tag ki yaar humne toh mulk ka diwaliya kar diya.
  27. He has said the IMF has systematically over-projected inflows from the rest of the world in its staff agreements. systematically in every IMF staff level agreement document that comes out, they have been systematically over-projecting the money that we are going to get from the rest of the world
  28. He has said he suspects the IMF uses wrong figures for private creditor inflows. my suspicion is they are feeding in wrong numbers around how much money is going to come in from private creditors.
  29. He has said the trend of Pakistan's economy is between 3 and 4 percent. Bache bache ko pata hai ki Pakistan ki economy, the trend is between 3 to 4%.
  30. He has said the rupee would have to depreciate if Pakistan's prices rise faster than US prices. Agar aapki price badhti gayi hai aur US ki price utne se nahi badhi toh exchange rate ko depreciate karna padega
  31. He has said Pakistan's real effective exchange rate has been fairly flat for a long period. real effective exchange rate jo hum baat karte hain, usko dekho. It's been pretty flat, right? Uh for a long period of time.
  32. He has said long-term competitiveness needs the currency kept undervalued systematically, as China did. undervalued systematically for a very long period of time, which is what we saw China do
  33. He has said that, if forced to choose, he would favour keeping the currency undervalued systematically. I mean, agar aap mere se pucho, I'll probably say if you have to pick a choice, then I'll go for let's say keeping the currency undervalued uh systematically.
  34. He has said undervaluation works by accumulating inflows as reserves rather than spending them. aap unko reserves ki form mein accumulate karte rahein, rather than just spending them out here and there for consumption purposes
  35. He has said China saved its foreign inflows as dollar reserves. China ne un paison ko save kiya dollar reserves ki shakal mein, balkay us se bhi zyada save kiya
  36. He has said reserves work as a form of insurance. Reserves are a form of insurance in a way if you want to think in that terms, right?
  37. He has said Pakistan has had far more boom and bust cycles than other countries since the 1990s. this then also means ke boom and bust cycles aapki taraf bahut zyada hain banisbat baaki countries mein. Especially post 1990s
  38. He has said machines are not installed because investors have no confidence about what will happen. machine aapne nahi lagani kyunke jo investor hai usko bharosa hi nahi hai ke yahan pe kya hona hai.
  39. He has said that sovereign guarantees of an unusual kind were given, and that a new crisis has arisen because of them. humne ajeeb o gareeb qisam ki sovereign guarantees de di aur uski wajah se jo hai ji aaj hamara ek naya crisis khada hua hai.
  40. He has said that a very good opportunity was wasted in the past for strategic reasons. in the past, obviously, we wasted a very good opportunity for strategic reasons.
  41. He has said he does not think policy continuity is lacking, since protection has been provided from the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s onwards. I don't think there's a lack of policy continuity. From the 70s, 50s, 60s onwards protection aapne di hui hai.
  42. He has said Pakistan cut tariffs in the 2000s but political economy pushed protection back up. Aapne tariffs ko liberalize kiya in the 2000s, but then the political economy kind of got them back up to where they were back in early 2000s, right?
  43. He has said almost 40 percent of Pakistan's labour force works in agriculture, the least productive sector. Almost 40% of your labor force is in agriculture and agriculture is the least productive sector in Pakistan.
  44. He has said affordable land in urban centres, or closer to urban centres, is needed. You need land, affordable land in urban centers or closer to urban centers
  45. He has said money and land are tied up in real estate. paisa, land aapka real estate, DHA, Bahria, Shahria inmein laga hua hai.
  46. He has said he thinks Pakistani voters are very wise. I think Pakistani voter is very wise.
  47. He has cited the health insurance policy of the PTI government in KP as an example. So, for example, think about the PTI government, right? In KP. So, so PTI government, they had a very good policy of uh health insurance.
  48. He has said voters protested when KP's health insurance was taken away. Because when it was taken away later, they complained and they actually protested.
  49. He has said the military has very significant business interests in real estate, food and fertilizer. military in Pakistan has very significant business interests. They are in real estate, they are in food, they are in fertilizer
  50. He has said the disruptive political system is at the root of repeated balance of payments crises. So I think that disruptive political system that we have uh or quasi political system that we have, that is I think also at the root of what we have going on uh with the repeated balance of payment crisis.
  51. He has said Pakistan has reached a point where the inevitability of change can no longer be argued. we are now at a point where you can't really argue on the inevitability of change.
  52. He has said change is very hard to predict. Yeah, I mean it's very hard to predict change, honestly.
  53. He has said change is often deadly and difficult. Change kaafi dafa deadly bhi ho jata hai. Change kaafi dafa jo hai woh um difficult bhi ho jata hai.
  54. He has said business as usual cannot continue in Pakistan. Mera again what I'm trying to uh hypothesize is that business as usual nahi chal sakta.
  55. He has said a growing resentment among the population will force some form of change. you will see some form of change because there is a growing resentment um amongst the population.
  56. He has said a question is whether elites decide to give up power and share it more equally with the growing population. Meaning elites they don't decide to give up on power and share it more equally with let's say the growing population
  57. He has said a common person is more intelligent than many educated people. I think a common person is more intelligent than perhaps many educated
  58. He has said Pakistan's ethnic diversity means many groups need representation. Pakistan is a very ethnically diverse country, so everyone needs some kind of representation to express their identity
  59. He has said that, in a period he described as not very good for the structure of the economy, the investment rate and the export-to-GDP ratio were falling. it wasn't a very good period in terms of the structure of the economy, aapki investment rate gir raha hai, aapki exports to GDP ratio gir rahi hai.
  60. He has said there has been a search for someone from outside to bail the country out, so that things can continue for another 5 to 10 years. The point is that you have been looking for someone else to come from the outside to bail you out so you can keep the whole uh thing going for another 5 10 years
  61. He has said he sees little reform happening in Pakistan. As far as reforms are concerned, we don't see much happening there.
  62. He has said studies show about half of exports depend on the quality of contracting institutions. there are studies which show ke half of what you end up exporting um depends on the quality of your contracting institutions.
  63. He has said more complex production needs more contractual arrangements. Jitna zyada complex hota hai production process utni zyada aapko contractual arrangements chahiye
  64. He has said Pakistan's debt is now much more complex, owed to the GCC, China and the Paris Club. Pakistan's debt today is much more complex. Pehle sirf aap sirf pehle Paris Club ko aapne wapas karna tha, aaj GCC ko bhi karna hai, China ko bhi karna hai, Paris Club ko bhi karna hai.
  65. He has said power should be shared in a way that is compatible with the constitution. they share the power in a political way which is uh compatible with the constitution, which brings in everyone into the national fold
  66. He has said expected GCC support was revised down from 80 billion dollars to 2 billion. GCC se 80 billion aa jayega. That came down to 20 billion aa jayega, that came down to 5 billion aa jayega, 2 billion aa jayega.