Thought Behind Things · Apr 15, 2026 · 1:29:40
Fractional reserve banking is a modern form of riba
A chartered accountant argues Pakistan's debt, inflation, and poverty all trace back to one design flaw: how banks create money out of nothing.
with Qanit Khalilullah
13 min read
A monetary reset, three or four years out
Muzamil Hasan opens by placing this conversation inside a bigger frame he has returned to across the show: three forces converging over the next three to four years, AI-driven shifts in how work gets done, a move from a unipolar to a multipolar geopolitical order, and what he calls an 80-to-100-year cycle of monetary reset. He traces the last reset to 1971-73, when the dollar came off the gold standard and free-floating, printable currency became the global default. A year earlier, Faisal Aftab had discussed this cycle on the show. This episode picks it up through a narrower, more technical door: a new book called “Breaking the Trap: Debt, Inflation, Interest and Poverty, Replacing Fractional Reserve Banking with Full Reserve Money.”
The book’s co-author, Qanit Khalilullah, a chartered accountant who trained at A.F. Ferguson and later ran internal audit at Unilever Pakistan, joins to explain both the diagnosis and the proposed fix. He frames the stakes immediately: “if you look at where the world’s problems begin, even the wars, ultimately they trace back to economic issues, and those economic issues have a root: the monetary system.” His argument is that two levers, taxation and money creation, quietly tax everyone, including someone who cannot guarantee their next three meals but still pays 18 percent tax on every purchase.
Every economic problem traces back to money creation
Khalilullah’s opening case is specific to Pakistan’s federal budget. On the first day any fiscal year starts, roughly 60 percent of federal revenue is constitutionally owed to the provinces, and half of what remains goes straight to interest payments. That interest bill, he says, is two and a half times the defense budget, seven to eight times government’s own operating expenditure, and twenty times what gets spent on the roughly 100 million Pakistanis living below the poverty line. Most people assume this money is flowing to the IMF or foreign creditors. It isn’t: “close to 90 percent of that interest cost is on domestic debt, it isn’t going abroad at all.” Citizens deposit savings in banks, banks lend nearly all of it back to the government, and the government pays interest on that debt out of tax revenue extracted from the same citizens. Pakistan’s domestic debt has grown from 5 trillion rupees in 2010 to roughly 50 trillion today.
He’s careful to frame this as a choice rather than a law of nature: “these are our policy choices, and it’s because of these policy choices that these problems exist.” Citing Milton Friedman, he notes there are two reasons reform proposals like this rarely get implemented: ordinary people don’t understand who benefits, and the people who do benefit have a vested interest in the status quo.
Muzamil brings in a second reference point here, Ray Dalio’s newer book “Principles for Navigating the Next Big Debt Crisis,” which argues that sovereign debt cycles eventually outpace productivity growth and end in a breakdown of monetary order. Muzamil treats Dalio’s framing as corroboration: this isn’t a Pakistan-specific complaint, it’s a description of where most sovereign borrowers currently sit.
How a goldsmith’s receipt became the global banking system
Asked to explain the historical origin of the system, Khalilullah walks through roughly five thousand years of monetary history compressed into a few minutes. For most of that history, money was commodity-backed, gold and silver coins, sometimes state-stamped paper (China issued paper currency a thousand years ago). In 16th and 17th century Europe, people began depositing gold with goldsmiths and carrying the goldsmith’s receipt instead of the coin itself, since the receipt was easier to transact with. Some goldsmiths noticed depositors rarely came back for their actual gold, and started issuing more receipts than they had gold to back. When this was discovered, depositors ran on the goldsmiths, which is where the term “bank run” originates. England responded in 1840 by making note issuance an exclusive government prerogative, and most of the world followed.
What Khalilullah stresses is that this didn’t end private money creation, it relocated it. Over the following 200 years, transactions shifted from coins to paper receipts to bank ledger entries. Today, he says, roughly 95 percent of transaction value in the world happens as numbers in bank accounts, not physical currency. And banks today can expand those numbers the same way the dishonest goldsmiths once did: by issuing loans as fresh entries rather than transfers of existing deposits.
The multiplier: how 100,000 rupees becomes 1,900,000
Khalilullah gives a concrete mechanical walkthrough of fractional reserve banking. A depositor puts 100,000 rupees in a bank. The bank keeps a small reserve, say 5,000 rupees, deposits 5 percent of the total with the central bank, and lends out the remaining roughly 90,000 as brand-new money, not a transfer of the original deposit. That 90,000 gets spent, redeposited elsewhere, and the next bank repeats the process, keeping 5 percent and lending the rest again. Compounded across the system, a 5 percent reserve ratio allows total money supply to expand to roughly 20 times the original deposit. He’s careful to note this isn’t a fringe claim: “this isn’t something unusual, you can read it in any economics textbook, it’s the multiplier effect, and every central bank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Fed, all say the same thing: the money that’s 95 percent electronic, we aren’t creating it, commercial banks are.”
The consequence, in his telling, is that central banks only indirectly manage this expansion, mainly through the policy interest rate. Raise rates and lending slows, which cools inflation but also slows employment and industry. Lower rates and lending picks back up, feeding the next inflationary cycle. He describes this as a forced choice between two bad outcomes, not a stable equilibrium.
The real riba isn’t the interest rate, it’s the printing press
Muzamil pushes the conversation toward Islamic finance’s founding objection to interest, and reframes it in his own terms: “I think the reason why humanity keeps going back to this is because a riba-based system always gives you an immediate, short-term boost, which is very alluring, and everybody gets to jump into it.” He argues that the interest paid on a personal loan is a small, visible cost compared to the much larger, invisible cost of money creation itself: “the real riba isn’t even the interest, that’s a small face of it, the real riba is what money printing does to you, and that’s where the value quietly moves out of your pocket.”
Khalilullah agrees and extends the point into a chapter of the book that treats inflation as a wealth transfer with clear winners and losers. Asset owners, people holding stocks or real estate, benefit when inflation hits because their asset prices rise. Savers and fixed-income retirees lose, because their purchasing power quietly erodes. He cites the UK as an example: from 1970 to roughly 2020, the money supply grew 7 to 10 percent a year against roughly 2 percent GDP growth, and most of that gap showed up in house prices, not general goods, meaning people who once lived in owned homes ended up renting instead.
Splitting the bank in two: deposits that store, investments that risk
The book’s proposed alternative, full-reserve banking, requires commercial banks to hold 100 percent of deposit money at the central bank rather than lending most of it out. Under this model, Khalilullah explains, banks split into two functionally separate businesses: a deposit and payments section that simply stores and moves money (no interest, no risk, and structurally immune to bank runs), and an investment section that channels only genuine savings people have voluntarily committed into productive lending, on a profit-and-loss basis rather than fixed interest. “This isn’t us saying credit or lending disappears,” he says, “we’re saying it has to be backed by real savings,” rather than by numbers a bank conjures on its own balance sheet.
He argues this arrangement is actually closer to Islamic finance’s original intent than current Islamic banking practice. Current Islamic bank contracts, he says, whether ijara or murabaha, still peg their profit rate to the central bank’s policy rate and still function as debt, because banks holding short-term, risk-free deposits structurally cannot take on genuine profit-and-loss risk. Full reserve banking, in his framing, is what would actually let banks do mudaraba and musharaka properly, since the money going into the investment section would be long-term and risk-bearing by design.
Cancelling the debt by moving it onto the central bank’s balance sheet
The mechanism for eliminating Pakistan’s domestic debt is, in Khalilullah’s description, almost accounting sleight of hand made real. Roughly 70 percent of what commercial banks currently hold as assets is government securities, treasury bills, and sukuk. If the reserve requirement is raised from 5 percent toward 100 percent, banks have to move an equivalent volume of assets to the central bank to satisfy that requirement, and since those assets are government paper, the central bank, effectively an arm of the government, can cancel the debt outstanding to itself. “The government’s domestic debt, where a huge share of your interest is going, roughly 50 percent, you eliminate it,” he says.
The second constraint in the proposal is that new money creation is capped at the rate of real GDP growth, which he argues prevents both inflation and deflation. He estimates that even a modest 4 to 5 percent annual money creation under this cap could fund a transfer of roughly 20,000 rupees a month to Pakistan’s poorest families, without the debt burden that currently accompanies government spending, since the money isn’t created against a loan that has to be repaid by future taxpayers.
Twelve people, half the world’s wealth
The wealth-concentration argument surfaces the political stakes of the debate most sharply. One of the guest’s turns lands on a stark image: “today there are twelve people in the world who hold half of it’s wealth, roughly enough to fit in a single large van.” He connects this directly to interest income: large corporations and governments borrow at low rates in developed economies (2 percent in the US and Europe) and redeploy that capital at higher returns, while savers holding deposits absorb the inflation those same institutions help generate. Even Islamic banks are implicated in his account, since they too push depositors toward non-interest-bearing current accounts while continuing to profit from lending out those deposits.
The credit line problem: what happens the morning after
This is where Muzamil spends the bulk of his airtime, and where the conversation earns its length. He grants the philosophy without reservation, “I won’t argue with you on the theory, I can very clearly see the utility,” but presses hard on sequencing. His example is a working exporter who nightly draws a large credit line to fund operations and repays it days later as cash flow comes in. If reserve requirements jump overnight, he asks, where does that liquidity go?
He also points to real precedents of partial reserve tightening gone wrong: Turkey raising reserve requirements on certain accounts to 40 percent, and China pushing requirements to roughly 21.5 percent to cool a real-estate bubble in the 2010s. In both cases, he notes, unregulated shadow lending and loan sharks emerged to fill the gap once formal credit dried up, interest rates on informal lending spiked, and GDP growth slowed in the short run. His challenge to Khalilullah is direct: is there an actual mitigation plan for that transition pain, or is the answer simply that short-term pain is the price of long-term gain?
Khalilullah’s response leans on sequencing rather than denial. Government debt, he argues, can be cancelled essentially immediately because it’s a bookkeeping cancellation between the central bank and the treasury. Private-sector debt is different: existing contracts, whether interest-based or Islamic-mode financing, would continue to be honored on their original terms and phased out gradually rather than voided overnight. He projects that once depositors stop earning any return on simple checking-style deposits, a meaningful share, his estimate is around 25 percent of depositors holding roughly 7 to 8 trillion rupees, would move that money into investment accounts seeking a return, which he expects to expand private-sector lending capacity from roughly 12-13 trillion rupees to around 20 trillion, a roughly 60 percent increase. Muzamil pushes back that this still assumes a multi-year unwind, not the overnight process Khalilullah initially described, and Khalilullah partially concedes the point while maintaining the transition would be faster than critics assume, citing detailed balance-sheet modeling done for Pakistan specifically with his co-author Sohaib Umar, a Bahrain-based bank advisor.
Genius Act, stablecoins, and the CBDC surveillance trap
Near the end, Muzamil asks Khalilullah to weigh full-reserve banking against two current alternatives: the US GENIUS Act, which requires stablecoin issuers to back tokens one-to-one (originally with treasuries), and central bank digital currencies. Khalilullah treats both as partial, technologically-driven echoes of the same underlying principle rather than genuine substitutes. A CBDC, he argues, could deliver the reserve discipline of full-reserve banking, but at the cost of killing bank-level innovation and enabling direct state surveillance of every transaction, a concern he says is loud in Western debates over civil liberties. Stablecoins, in his reading, aren’t really a monetary reform at all, they’re payment-rail competition aimed at cryptocurrency, and even the GENIUS Act’s backing requirement, he notes, is treasuries rather than a truly reserved, debt-free asset.
His preferred version keeps commercial banks doing everything they currently do, transactions, storage, innovation, except creating money, a power he argues belongs exclusively to the state as a public good, bounded by GDP growth. “This way you get the benefit of central bank digital money,” he says, “but you’re not banning private banking, you’re only taking away money creation.”
Closing: the case for staying critical
Muzamil closes by separating philosophical agreement from implementation skepticism, telling Khalilullah plainly that he does not believe any single person or book can resolve every second-order effect of a national monetary transition, and that this is a strength of the critique rather than an insult to it: “being critical for the sake of being critical doesn’t help anyone. Being critical in search of a solution is an excellent thing, and I’d urge more people to do that.” He credits Khalilullah with doing “an incredible service, not just to your profession but to the industry, to the economy,” and urges viewers to read the book directly, noting its free digital availability, before forming a view. Khalilullah, addressed throughout the close as Khan sahab, thanks Muzamil for the platform: “thank you for the opportunity to bring this to your audience, right now what we want most is for this discourse to reach more people and for the conversation to actually start.” Muzamil signs off inviting viewer questions for a follow-up conversation, framing financial literacy itself as the point: “if you don’t understand how your system works, then fooling you becomes just as easy.”
Full transcript
Logon, khawateen-o-hazraat, welcome back to another episode of Thought Behind Things. Jaisa ke aapko pata hai is channel ke upar main to jonk ki tarah peeche pada hua hoon ke aaj kal ke haalaat jo hain woh bahut zyada rapidly change ho rahe hain aur ismein teen major areas jo maine aapko hamesha bataye, mujhe lagta hai ke usmein major changes mutawaqqe hain agle teen se chaar saal ke andar, jismein se ek obviously AI and technological shifts hain, industrial revolution keh lein jiski wajah se the nature of how we do work, the nature of our economy is going to radically change. Doosra, geopolitical changes hain, aap usko dekh bhi rahe hain, kaafi hadd tak ab aapke saamne ayaan hona shuru ho gaye hain with the Iran-US war and then increasingly ab log iske baare mein baat kar rahe hain ke we are moving away from a unipolar world to a multipolar world aur uske jo repercussions hain, woh aapne bahut recently Pakistan ke saath dekhe bhi jahan par Pakistan suddenly ek potential middle power ke taur pe emerge karta hua nazar aaya aur hum sab ki soch se zyada Pakistan ko importance milna shuru ho gayi. Again, that is principally because of the fact ke Pakistan ki jo requirement, jo positioning in this potential new world order, woh comparatively different hai and therefore, obviously, that changes things and that changes how we view ourselves, how we project ourselves to the world, as well as uske economic and other, you know, jo jo differences hain, woh bhi humne different episodes mein pichle dinon discuss bhi kiye. Jo third and most important bhi hai aur kaafi dafa overlooked bhi hai, woh yeh hai ke mere hisab se we are at a 100-year or keh lein 80-year cycle of a monetary reset. Iske upar Faisal Aftab pichle dinon aaye the, unhone thodi si baat bhi ki aur unhone kaha ke potentially jo pehle humne 1947 ka ek status quo start hua tha with the creation of the IMF and the World Bank, uske baad 1973 ke andar ek reset aaya jab essentially aapka jo dollar-backed currency thi, jo gold-backed dollar tha, usko aapne unpeg kar liya aur aapne jo hai dollar ko completely free float kar liya aur uski wajah se ek aisa nizaam bana jiske andar money printing became the common situation and then uske baad se chhote bahut saare cycles aate rahe hain, lekin bahut saare log ab is baat pe, you know, keh rahe hain ke ek major monetary reset is on the cards. Jab woh monetary reset ki baat ho rahi hai to usmein zahir hai bahut saare log different suggestions ki bhi baat kar rahe hain ke aane wale waqt mein kis tareeqe se yeh cheez evolve kar sakti hai, central bank digital currencies ki bhi baat ho rahi hai, cryptocurrencies jo ek dam se Pakistan mein bhi stable coins aur regulations uske around aana shuru hui hain, uski bhi kadi kahin na kahin isi cheez se milti hai ke there is a reset coming. And in that context, obviously, jab is kism ki situation hoti hai to hamesha it is always good to, a, have a conversation on different ways that we can imagine the financial system to look like kyunki aaj se agar paanch saal pehle hum ek naye different system ki baat kar rahe hote, Islamic finance ki baat kar rahe hote, Islamic banking ki baat kar rahe hote ya kisi aur nizaam ki baat kar rahe hote, to woh log hamesha aake keh dete the ke yaar yeh tum kya baatein kar rahe ho, dekho duniya chal rahi hai aur behtareen chal rahi hai. Lekin ab kyunki duniya aapko, you know, ladkharati hui nazar aa rahi hai, is wajah se ab sunne wale zyada hain ke is nizaam mein exactly masla kya hai aur iska potential solution kya ho sakta hai. Isi particular reason ki wajah se humne ek saal pehle ek guest ko dawat di thi jinhone kaafi detail mein humein aake na sirf yeh explain kiya ke Islamic finance ya particularly debt-based fractional reserve system jo hai woh kis tareeqe se Pakistan mein chal raha hai aur poori duniya mein chal raha hai, balki saath hi unhone ek solution bhi uska propose kiya tha us time ke upar jismein sort of woh yeh keh rahe the ke jo fractional reserve hai usko 100% reserve banking ki taraf aap le jayein to aapke bahut saare masail khatam ho sakte hain. Us time ke upar hum humari bahut detail mein debate bhi hui, kaise ho sakta hai, kaise nahi ho sakta hai, lekin since then, you know, he has been able to work comprehensively on the issue and has actually come out with a book jo ke recently unhone mujhe bheji bhi and I was able to go through that in detail aur uske andar woh yeh saari cheez bahut extensively explain karte hain ke exactly masla kya hai, uska potentially solution kya ho sakta hai. Book ka naam hai 'Breaking the Trap: Debt, Inflation, Interest and Poverty - Replacing Fractional Reserve Banking with Full Reserve Money'. Yeh jo book hai, it is also available, waise to aap isko khareed sakte hain book store se, lekin yeh unhone apni website ke upar free of cost digital version uska rakha hua hai taake aap log jo hain usko padh bhi lein aur zahir hai uske andar mujhe jo cheez bahut acchi lagi, you know, podcast mein bhi aap do ghante bhi baat kar lein, aapko depth mein cheez ko samajh nahi aati, to is book mein unhone poori history aur saara masla bhi bata diya hai aur uska solution bhi bata diya hai. Kanit Khalil-ur-Rehman Sahab, Sir, thank you so much for taking the time out and joining us on the show.
Assalam-o-Alaikum.
Main thoda sa agar start karoon, I just want to get a sense of, aapne jo yeh book likhi hai, agar mujhe start mein batayein ke, you know, just build a base, why, why this particular issue? Why do you think it's important and, you know, why now?
Ji bilkul. Dekhein, is waqt jo duniya mein zahir hai masail hain, even jo jang ho rahi hai aur jo cheezein hain aur problems hain, ultimately agar aap jaake dekhenge to yeh bahut zyada economic issues ke upar shuru hoti hai aur woh phir badhte jaate hain. To economic masla jo hai, woh duniya bhar mein, main kahunga ke jo saare problems hain, uski agar base hai, uski jadd hai, to woh economic issue hai. Aur uske saath-saath social, zahir hai economy jo hai, woh social side pe bhi jaati hai. To jo aaj hum keh rahe hote hain na socio-economic, to woh bhi social cheezein bhi economy ke saath-saath hi chal rahi hoti hain aur saath-saath phir usmein morality ka masla hai. Jo teesra bada player hai, matlab economy, society ke saath-saath ek morality ka hai ke aapki economy ka jo system hai, woh kya fair hai ke nahi hai, kis tareeqe se yeh system chal raha hai. To is lihaz se yeh badi important discussion hai ke hum economy jo base hai, jo logon ki nazron ke saamne nahi ho rahi hoti, khaas taur pe log samajhte hain jo financial cheez hai. Lekin aap dekhein jaise economy ke andar do badi cheezein hoti hain na, ek tax ka system hai aur ek money creation ka system hai. Tax bhi jo hai, woh har ek ko matlab tang kar raha hota hai. Aap koi ghareeb bhi jaake Pakistan mein, duniya bhar mein jaake koi cheez purchase karta hai jiske paas shayad teen teen din ka agla khana maujood na ho, woh bhi har cheez par 18% tax de raha hota hai. To zahir hai yeh bahut ek cheez hai ke jo tang kar rahi hai, jo mehangai ho rahi hai. Usi tareeqe se jo money ka system hai duniya bhar mein, yeh bhi aksar logon ki nazron mein nahi hota ke kis tareeqe se yeh aap ko effect kar raha hai, halanki aapki salary ki jo purchasing power hai, woh har saal gir jaati hai. Aapki jo hai woh jab aap jaake jo mehangai ho rahi hoti hai, woh isi wajah se ho rahi hoti hai ke money ki supply badh jaati hai. To us lihaz se zahir hai ke mera to finance ka background hai, main as a Chartered Accountant maine Ferguson aur Unilever wagera ke andar kaam kiya hai. Pichle chaar paanch saalon se mera yeh khayal tha ke is is mauzu ke upar logon ko baat karni chahiye kyunki solution maujood hai. Yeh nahi hai ke yeh haalaat aise hain ke jo aise hi rahenge. Yeh policy choices hain humari. Aur policy choices ki wajah se jo hai yeh masail ho rahe hain. To yani ek to humne pichli usmein khaasi detail mein baat ki thi ke jo humara fiscal side hai, yani taxation system, woh hum zakat-based taxation se kaise replace kar sakte hain kyunki zakat zahir hai aapko kahan se lena hai, kahan dena hai, bada specific hai, humne khaasa detail mein discussion kiya tha. Woh zahir hai aaj ka humara mauzu nahi hai, lekin jo doosri side hai, monetary side, woh badi important hai isliye ke jo Pakistan ke ya duniya bhar ke jo haalaat hain, agar hum Pakistan ke haal dekhein, to hum taqreeban government ka jo pehla din shuru hota hai, woh use federal government ki hum baat kar rahe hain, use 18th amendment ke tehat koi 60% soobon ko dena hota hai aur 50% uska kharch jo income jo tax le raha hai, 50% jo hai woh interest mein chala jata hai. Itni badi raqam hai ke yeh jo 50% hai, yeh agar aap yani defense ke muqable mein dekhein to yeh 2.5 times hai. Government ke apne expenditure ke baare mein dekhein to yeh 7-8 times hogi. Aur jo development expenditure hai, uske muqable mein shayad five times hogi. Aur jo hum bechare ghareeb jo bechare maare-maare phir rahe hain Pakistan mein 10 crore log jisko hum kehte hain satah-e-ghurbat se neeche hain, un par jo kharcha ho raha hai, uske muqable mein yeh 20 times hai, yani agar 500 billion rupaye jo har ek ek individual pe aap dekhein to shayad 5-600 rupaye mahine ka banta hoga, uske muqable mein 20 times hum kharch kar rahe hain. Aur logon ke zahir hai zehno mein yeh hota hai ke shayad yeh hum majboor hain dene mein, yeh paisa jo hai woh Pakistan se bahar ja raha hai, IMF ne humein pakda hua hai aur yeh paisa wahan ja raha hai. Aur ya hum World Bank ko de rahe hain, yeh abhi woh Saudi aur unke aa raha hai ke bade interest rate zyada hain, unko shayad de rahe hain, lekin aapko yeh bhi hairani hogi, aapke audience ko humne pichli dafa bhi baat ki thi ke jo humari interest ki cost hai jo taqreeban 6,000 billion ya 6 trillion hogi, balki 7 trillion hai, uska 90% jo portion hai, woh domestic debt ke upar hai, yani woh kahin bahar nahi ja raha. Woh bahar nahi ja raha, woh kya ho raha hai ke hum aur aap jaake bankon ke deposit rakhwa rahe hain aur banks jo hain woh government ko hi qarza diye ja rahe hain aur government apne ghareeb awam ka pet kaat ke jo hai woh banks ko de rahi hai, banks apne khatedaron ko de rahe hain. To yeh jo domestic debt ke upar aapka 90% interest hai jo aapka poora khazane ko khaali kar deta hai, yeh aapki apni system hai, apni policy hai. Ek taraf yeh hai ke yeh mehangai jo hai woh ismein izafa hota hai kyunki jab aap interest government deti hai, woh accounts mein jata hai to usse money inflation hota hai jo ghareeb ko maar raha hota hai. Aur ek hum agli generation jo humari hai, us par hum qarza chadhate ja rahe hain. Yani Pakistan mein jo aam agar aap sochein ke humne pichle 15 saal mein humara qarza jo domestic qarza tha woh 5 trillion tha 2010 mein, ab woh 50 trillion pe pahunch chuka hai. To hum ek aisi generation hain ke khud mehangai seh rahe hain aur apne aane wale bacchon ko qarzon mein daalte ja rahe hain. To mujhe yeh laga ke matlab mera yeh mujhe bilkul saaf nazar aa raha hai ke bhai yeh apni policy choices hain, apni galti hain, apna system kharab hai. Us system ko bade acche tareeqe se theek kiya ja sakta hai, lekin usmein do masail yahi hain ke logon ko pata nahi hai ke bhai kis tareeqe se isko hal hona hai aur phir ismein vested interest bhi hain. Yani aaj jo yeh baat Friedman jo duniya ka bada economist hai, usne yeh kahi thi, usse pucha gaya bhai yeh jo aap proposal bata rahe hain, yeh kyun nahi implement ho pata? To usne yeh kaha ke iske do wujuhaat hain, ek to yeh ke aam public ko iska fayda jinko hona hai, unko samajh nahi aata aur jo vested interest wale hain, woh phir zahir hai usmein political cheezein bhi aa jaati hain. To yeh maqsad hai book likhne ka aur ismein ismein hum yeh chaah rahe hain ke zyada se zyada logon tak is baat ko pahunche aur yeh humne book mein shuru mein hi likha hai ke yeh kisi financial logon ke liye nahi likhi gayi hai, kisi humne koshish ki hai ke aam logon ko address karein. To bahut saari technical cheezein humne ismein se khatam ki hain, logon ko padhwaya hai aur phir yeh ke jo hum ek ismein is book mein jo dawa kar rahe hain ke hum Pakistan ka domestic debt jahan 50% aapke tax ja raha hai, woh khatam ho jata hai, hoga inshallah. Isse mehangai jo ghareebon ko maar rahi hai, woh khatam hogi, phir jo poverty ka khatma hoga, to kuch log yeh samajhte hain ke yeh bahut hi koi bade dawe kar rahe hain, to isko humne is book ko taqreeban 20 bade economists se, economists, scholars jo bade bade naam maujood hain, aap book mein jaake dekhiyega, unse humne isko review bhi karaya hai ke bhai yeh dekhein ke yeh bada workable solution hai jo hum bata rahe hain. Humein samajhna hai aur phir humein iski demand jab create hogi to inshallah tala government, poori society ke andar is par baat hogi.
Nah, that makes sense. And I think, do cheezein ismein main particularly bolunga, ek to Ray Dalio, main bada hawala deta raha hoon unka, he is a huge hedge fund manager as well and he's been writing a lot of books recently, jismein woh bata rahe hain ke duniya mein jo changes aa rahi hain, you know, he wrote a very, now a very very famous book, 'Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order', unhone 2019 mein likhi thi aur usmein unhone yeh bataya tha ke kis tareeqe se potentially US ka decline aa sakta hai aur ek nayi potential power rise kar sakti hai aur uski wajah se certain conflicts arise karenge. Interestingly, in many ways, kyunki woh simple cycles aur data ko istemal karke he was able to predict a lot of what we're going to right now with the with the Iran and US crisis as well and the Ukraine-Russia crisis as well. But most recently, he has been raising alarm bells and he has actually come out with a new book which basically says, 'Principles for Navigating the Next Big Debt Crisis'. Woh essentially yeh kehte hain ke US government jo hai, US government ka zahir hai woh US-based hain to US government ko use kar rahe hain, but us us book ke andar woh detail mein jaate hain to virtually all countries in the world aur usmein woh yeh kehte hain ke there is a big debt cycle, jismein hum us cycle ke ikhtetaam ke upar hain. Woh cycle essentially yeh kehta hai ke aap debt lena jab shuru karte hain to aapki badi party hoti hai, lekin over time that debt starts to catch you on and eventually woh jo debt ka jo growth hai, woh aapki productivity growth se zyada ho jata hai and after that it just, you know, you there's a breakdown of monetary order jo ke woh predict bhi kar rahe hain. Woh keh rahe hain ke is time ke upar hum log duniya ki jo saari sovereign nations hain, woh kaafi hadd tak ab us point pe pahunch chuki hain, point of no return pe pahunch chuki hain. Aaj shayad log isko sunenge, samjhenge, woh kahenge yaar yeh badi baatein kar rahe hain uncle, kaam chal raha hai, chalayi chalayi jao, lekin what people do not realize is we are in unprecedented times aur agar hum in fixes ke baare mein pehli baat to baat na karein aur doosri baat hum unke solutions ko identify na karein, to phir bahut zyada pain aa sakta hai. This is not about going with business as usual, but rather realizing ke aane wale waqt mein certain pain humare saamne khada hua hai aur humein aaj usko identify karke uske potential solutions ko discuss karke humein samajhna hai taake waqt aane par hum usko potentially implement kar sakein.
Yeh aapne badi acchi baat ki. Haan, main keh raha hoon badi acchi aapne baat ki ke yeh debt ke jo Ray Dalio unki jo baat ki, yeh debt jab hota hai na, chadhta hai to aapko pata hai jab individual log jo debt mein hote hain, unka poora jo yani attitude change ho jata hai. Isi tareeqe se jo government ke jo huge debt mein jab jaate hain na, to ya to woh default karte hain kisi time ke upar jaake, haan, aur ya phir yeh jo badi jangein hoti hain na, ismein bahut badi wajah yeh hoti hai ke ismein yani iske andar jo debt ka ka bhi jo hai woh contribution ho raha hota hai ke jab aap yeh aapas mein ladaiyan ho rahi hain, to zahir hai government ke paas agar capacity kam hai, to uska jo impact hai, woh aa raha hota hai. To yeh aap bilkul mera khayal hai ke yeh duniya bhar ka masla hai, is waqt America se lekar yani Japan tak jo government debt hai, woh bahut increase ho gaya hai aur main aapko bataoon ke yeh jo solution hum Pakistan ke liye bata rahe hain na, yeh solution duniya bhar ke liye hai. Matlab aisa nahi hai ke yeh zahir hai humne Pakistan context mein yeh yeh study ki hai aur poora chapter likha hai, lekin agar yeh wala proposal kiya jaye jismein aap sovereign money ki baat kar rahe hain, to ismein significantly debt level jo hai na, woh America ka aur countries ka bhi kam ho sakta hai aur yeh baat ek aap abhi hum jo ek IMF ka paper hai 2013 mein jismein unhone is proposal pe baat ki hai, usmein unhone isko acchi tarah se discuss kiya hai.
And we'll we'll talk more about that as well. Jo jo jo poora premise maine build kiya, usmein ek cheez jo main dekhta hoon aam viewers ke andar, aam logon ke andar, unka woh debt ki baat hamesha karte hain, hum bhi debt ki baat kar rahe hain, woh bhi debt ki baat karte hain, kyun? Kyunki bachpan se unko bataya gaya hai ke debt is bad because it encourages interest. Lekin jab woh debt ki baat karte hain, to woh ek bada clear cut unko nazar aa raha hota hai ke yaar accha bank se loan nahi lena, accha kisi se sood ke us pe paise nahi lene. Cash ki unko koi understanding nahi hai, banking system ki unko koi understanding nahi hai and in many ways, jo real, I would argue, ke jo real sood hai, woh to aapka woh interest to hai hi nahi, woh to ek bahut chhoti face hai, jo real sood hai, woh to aapki money printing se aapke upar lag raha hai aur wahan se value jo hai, woh aapki jebon se nikal kar ke move karayi ja rahi hai. What I want to understand is, agar aap kyunki I know aapne book mein isko explain kiya, agar aap chhoti short summary mein mujhe bata sakein, yeh jo banking system aaj humare saamne khada hua hai, jisko hum samajhte hain ke yaar yeh to, you know, this is a rock solid thing aur yeh aisa hi hai aur hamesha se aisa hi chalta raha hai, iska genesis kahan se hua aur us genesis ke andar hi jo yeh problem hai, woh built-in kaise thi?
Ji, agar hum money ki history dekhein na, to yani zahir hai arse se agar hum qareeb paanch-saat hazar, paanch hazar saal dekhein, to states to rahi hain. To zyada-tar jo money hoti thi, woh commodity money ho, jaise jo sone aur chaandi ke sikke, yeh jo ho, inko bhi na state stamp kiya karti thi. Yani state jo hai, woh isko karti thi ke bhai is pe itna wazan hai, to yani agar hum tareeq mein jaake dekhein to zyada-tar currencies jo hain ya jo paisa hai, woh state ki currency hoti thi, although ke commodity ki intrinsic value bhi hai, zahir hai ke agar aap sone ko pighla dein to. Isi tareeqe se yani aaj se hazar saal pehle China ke andar paper currency thi jo unki state chhap rahi thi. To yani zyada-tar jo currencies hoti thi, woh woh state jo hai, usko establish kar rahi hoti thi. Aur agar aap 15th-16th century dekhein to zyada currencies Europe mein aur is side pe, woh commodities hoti thi, yani silver aur gold ki currencies, haan. Aur log isse transaction kar rahe hote the aur zahir hai usmein aap us tarah se aap expansion nahi kar sakte the, yani aisa nahi ho sakta tha ke unlimited expansion ho jaye jo aaj hum dekh rahe hain. To hua yeh ke 16th-17th century mein jo hai, yeh jo log jaake goldsmith hote the, inke paas jaake sikke rakhwa diya karte the, unke paas jaake sona rakhwa diya aur goldsmith jo hai, woh raseedein issue karte the unko. To jo raseedein issue karte the aur usmein logon ne yeh dekha ke agar humne jo sikka rakhwaya hua hai aur raseed hai, to hum humein koi cheez purchase karni hai, to hum sikka jaake kyun lein, sona kyun lein, hum raseed hi doosre ko de dein. Aur phir is tarah yeh hua ke yeh raseedon jo hai jo gold ki raseedein thi, unki basis pe transactions shuru ho gayi. Medium of exchange, money ki jo pehli woh hai requirement, woh yahi hai na ke woh medium of exchange hai. To woh currency ke taur pe aur medium of exchange ke taur pe usse karobar shuru ho gaya aur log karne lage. Aur yeh kaam theek chalta raha, zahir hai ismein ek convenience thi ke aapko sona lena nahi pad raha, aap kagaz ke tukde ke through, raseed ke through aap transaction kar rahe hain. 17th century mein yeh hua ke kuch goldsmith the jo zara jinko zyada shauk, zyada profit, zyada earning ka tha, unko yeh khayal hua ke bhai log sona lene to humare paas aate nahi hain. To kyun na hum aisa karein ke hum agar humein ek sikka hai, hum ek sikke ki jagah pe ek raseed issue karni hai, hum do raseedein issue kar dein, teen raseedein issue kar dein. Aur unhone yeh kaam shuru karna shuru kar diya. Us zamane mein to badi badi fraudulent activity samjhi gayi ke bhai aapke paas sona nahi hai aur aap jo hai woh raseedein issue karke jo hai woh aap kama rahe hain paise. Aur jin sunaron ke baare mein, jin goldsmith ke baare mein pata chala, log unke paas pahunch gaye, to unko jail jana pada, jise aaj ki zabaan mein aap aap bank run kehte hain ke yeh ho gaya. Aur phir saath-saath uska doosra masla yeh bhi hua, ek to yeh hua ke financial instability ho gayi, bank run ya hone lage, usse pehle poori economy choke hone lagti hai. Doosra uska masla yeh hua ke jab aap zyada raseedein issue karne lage to kya hua ke aapki production nahi badh rahi aur currency badh rahi hai, to usse mehangai aur jo instability shuru ho gayi. To sabse pehle jo hai, woh England ki government ne yeh tay kiya ke bhai unhone 1840 ki baat hai, unhone kaha ke koi private party raseed issue nahi karegi. Yeh jo note hain, jise aap raseed kahein, note kahein, yeh note ka prerogative hai, yeh sirf central government ke paas hai aur sab ko unhone mana kar diya. Aur England kyunki us zamane mein dominant power thi, to usko dekha-dekhi saari countries ne usko follow kar liya. To ek tarah se jo hai, jo shuru mein zara yeh jo private creation of money shuru hui thi, yeh jo raseedon ki surat mein, isko badi jaldi jo hai woh tackle kar liya gaya. Maine aapko bataya usse pehle to zahir hai jo currency commodity thi, even paper currency China wagera ki thi, woh state issue kiya karti thi. To usse pehle to state ki currency thi. To jab yeh shuru hua goldsmith ka, isko jaldi tackle kar liya gaya kuch arse ke baad ke bhai private creation of money nahi hogi, jo bhi note honge, woh central bank sona rakhega aur woh raseedein issue karega. Lekin phir guzashta 200 saalon mein yeh hua aahista-aahista ke jo transaction hoti thi jo pehle sone ke sikkon mein hoti thi, phir woh sone ki raseedon mein hone lagi, woh aahista-aahista bankon ke accounts ke through hone lagi. Aur ab yani yeh 1840 ki baat hai jab yeh private creation of money khatam hui thi, us waqt zahir hai bahut thodi transaction paper ke alawa hoti hongi. Aaj 2026 ke andar taqreeban duniya mein 95% se upar transaction in value jo ho rahi hain, woh bankon ke numberon mein ho rahi hain. Yani bank numberon ke andar jo hai woh aap kar rahe hote hain, main yahan se baith ke America payment kar sakta hoon, main apne bacche ki fee pay kar sakta hoon, zyada iski speed zyada hai, velocity zyada hai. To woh jo paper currency ko, jo paper raseedein thi, unko ab woh convert ho gayi bankon ke numberon mein.
jisko aap digital money kahein, jisko aap electronic money karein. To is surat mein ab bankon ke paas ye taqat aa gayi hai jis tarah un sunaron ke paas taqat thi ke woh taqat ya woh kar rahe the ke woh raseedein zyada issue kar diya karte the. Usi tareeqe se bankon ke paas ye power aa gayi hai ke woh zyada money create kar sakein. To banks aaj kal kya karte hain ke agar aap kisi yani bank kis tarah money create karte hain? Bank money create karte hain jo aaj ka nizam hai fractional reserve banking system. Ke aap jabhi bhi bank ke paas jayenge, aap kahein ke bhai mujhe mujhe for example 10 50 lakh rupaye ka loan chahiye. To 50 lakh rupaye woh aapke account mein numberon mein daal denge. Aur ye bilkul fresh aur new money hogi jo money ki miqdar mein izafa hoga. Aur usse kya hoga? Usse zahir hai ke jab woh money mere account mein aayegi ya kisi ke account mein jayegi to usse payments hongi. Agar woh production ke muqable mein zyada money daal rahe honge to usse mehangai shuru ho jayegi. Aur kyunke bankon ka jo model hai woh ye hota hai ke banks chahe koi aap yani public interest ke liye to nahi kaam kar rahe, woh to private entities hain, woh profit kamana chahte hain. Woh chahte hain ke apne logon ko achhi salaries milein, unke top jo log hain unko achhe bonuses milein. To woh zyada se zyada loan issue karna chah rahe hote hain. Dekhein, jaise aap jaise aap kisi trading company mein koi ho to woh sale karna chahta hai na, to bankon ki sale loans hain ke woh loans zyada se zyada issue karna chahte hain. Aur jab ye loan issue karte hain to usse unka profit badhta hai. Unhein koi credible party chahiye aur woh aapko loan issue karenge. Lekin uske saath saath ye hota hai ke jab woh loan issue karte hain, woh sirf loan nahi hota, woh nayi money bhi hoti hai. Kyunke woh account mein numberon mein money aapke daal rahe hain, aapke account mein yani main jo maine pehle kaha na ke agar main jaake lakh rupaye kisi bank mein daaloon, mere account mein aa jayenge aur bank agar loan dega to bhi mere account mein waise hi aa jayenge. Kyunke woh numberon mein create kar denge double entry system ke through. Yani aapka ka loan unhone kaha ke aap ek saal baad wapas karenge, aaj aap ye money le lein. To ye jo money jab woh create kar rahe hote hain jo unka business hai to usse phir doosra nuksaan ye hota hai kyunke ye money create kar rahe hain usse mehangai shuru ho jati hai. Theek hai na? Usse mehangai hone lagti hai foran ke bhai aur governments ko jo hai woh zahir hai logon ko to nahi pata hota, log mehangai hoti hai, log government ko jo bhi state hoti hai usko sunana shuru kar dete hain. To uske liye jo modern banking ne system ye rakha hua hai ke unhone ek central bank rakha hua hai, woh kehte hain ke ji money ki jo creation ho rahi hai usko hum indirectly control karenge. Uske control karne ke do tareeqe rakhte hain woh. Ek tareeqa to ye hota hai ke woh interest rate kehte hain ke interest rate hum determine karenge. Jo aap kehte hain na har thode dinon mein State Bank wale aate hain, Fed aata hai, policy interest rate. To policy interest rate ye hota hai ke ji ye rate hai jispe jispe aapko poore mulk mein jo poore banking ka sector hai woh aage loan issue kar raha hoga. To agar jo hai woh yani mehangai zyada ho rahi hai, bank zyada loan issue kar rahe hain to woh rate of interest rate badha dete hain taake rate badh jaye aur log kam loan lein. Kam lene ka matlab ye hai ke money ka phailao kam ho aur mehangai jo hai woh kam ho jaye. To ye wala system jo hai indirectly woh control karne ki koshish kar rahe hote hain aur isiliye jo hai woh jab ek yani mehangai hoti hai to woh kya kehte hain ke woh interest rate badha dete hain. Phir kya interest rate badhane se sirf nuksaan ye nahi hota ke money supply badh hoti hai balki usse nuksaan ye ho jata hai ke poori employment, jo industry hai woh nuksaan mein chali jati hai. Phir jab woh neeche jati hai to interest rate kam ho karne lagte hain. To ye jo masla hai na ke interest rate kam karna badhana, aapke paas do hi alternative hain, ya to aap employment ko economy ko nuksaan pahunchayein ya aap inflation hone dein. To ye jo current system hai jo aap kahein kahein ke jo private creation of money ho rahi hai banking ka, isme jo hai woh aapke paas do alternative hain aur is waqt jo hai woh aap samjhein ke 9 jo maine aapko pehle bataya 95% of the money jo create ho rahi hai woh banks create kar rahe hain aur woh fractional reserve ke through kar rahe hain. Iska bada aasan sa main aapko aakhir mein baat khatam yani conclude karte hue batata hoon ke bank mein jaake aap lakh rupaye rakhwayein to bank ye karta hai ke 5,000 rupaye apne paas, kuch thoda bahut cash rakhta hai kyunke cash ki requirement to ab kam hai yani 5% hum assume kar lete hain usne apne paas rakha. 5% usko State Bank ke paas rakhwana padta hai jise aap reserve kehte hain. Aur 90,000 rupaye woh kisi ko loan de deta hai. To ab jisne lakh rupaye rakhwaye uske paas bhi lakh rupaye hain aur 90,000 jiske paas loan gaye uske paas bhi, ekdam se money double ho gayi, 1,90,000 ho gayi. Ab woh jo 90,000 jisne loan liya hai usne apne paas rakhne ke liye to nahi liya hoga, usne apne kisi employee ko payment ki, usne kisi vendor ko payment ki. 90,000 uske paas gaye. Vendor ya uska employee hai usne jaake bank mein rakhwaye. Bank, agle bank ne phir yahi kiya ke 5% jo hai woh State Bank mein rakhwaya, remaining usne aage kisi ko loan de diya aur ye money phir 2 200 2,70,000 ho gayi aur ye is tarah se ye process chalta rehta hai aur with 5% reserve ratio kya kehte hain jo total money ki supply woh taqreeban 20 times badh jati hai. Achha ye jo main baat bata raha hoon ye koi aisi nahi hai, ye aap har economics ki book mein jaake padh lein multiplier impact ke isse money create hoti hai. Aur saare central bank yani Bank of England ko aap paper padh lein, aap European Bank ka kar lein, Fed ka dekh lein, sab yahi ke bada concluding woh ye baat kar rahe hain ke bhai is waqt jo jo money hai jo 95% electronic hai ye hum nahi create kar rahe. Sirf base money hum create karte hain, baqiya commercial bank create karte hain aur agar woh zyada create ho rahi hai ya kam create ho rahi hai woh bankon ke attitude pe hota hai ke credit risk kaise dekh rahe hain, uske mutabiq hota hai. Hum sirf usko interest rate ke through control karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. To ye jo system poora ho gaya hai jo private creation of money pichle 100 saalon mein bahut badh gaya hai ye, ye tareekh mein nahi raha hai. Tareekh mein hamesha se maine aapko bataya state money thi, commodity ho, paper money China ke andar thi. Beech mein aaye kuch dinon central bank ne mana kar diya lekin ab jo ye badh gaya hai aur uske bahut zyada nuksaanaat hain jo humne apni book mein bade detail mein bataye hain ke ye ye jo money creation hai iske social, iske economic, iske morality pe kya kya impact aa rahe hain aur nazar nahi aa raha lekin aap uspe dekhein woh ek pyramid hai jispe woh cheezein ek ke baad ek ke baad ek ho rahi hoti hain.
Nahi, I completely agree and I think jab hum agar thoda sa bhi mutalia karein na Islamic finance ka aur Islamic fundamental jo principles the jiske upar aapne poora ye riba ko ban kiya essentially. And not just Islam by the way, all religions like Judaism, Christianity, they've they've always been against riba and I think the reason why hum humanity keeps on going back is because ye riba wala system aapko short term mein ekdam se hamesha boost laake deta hai jo ke bada alluring hota hai and everybody gets to jump into that lekin woh hamesha you know there was an infinite wisdom of God that allowed for a more longer term sustainable approach jo ke hum hamesha miss kar jate hain. And so I understand ke jo rise hai woh hamesha ek fall ke saath directly interlinked hai is system ke andar and the fall jiske upar padti hai phir woh uske liye sabse zyada painful hota hai. Now my question to you probably is ke isme zahir hai ke aapne kaha ke sovereign ye jo money creation hai ye aapke woh kar rahe hain, banks kar rahe hain, right? Aap kya propose kar rahe hain ke woh bank se hata ke government ke paas le jaya jaye money creation ko? Jis tarah aapne multiple times kaha ke isse pehle hamesha jo money creation rahi hai woh you know governments karti rahi hain. To kya aap isko keh rahe hain ke sort of modern monetary theory jo ek tarah se hai ke yaar government isko wapas le le aur phir government uske baad tun ke print karti rahe, no problem, no questions asked, woh jo hai na woh phir government ka sar ka dard hai ke woh decide karegi ke usne us paise ko print karke kidhar development mein lagana hai, jo bhi lagana hai. Um kya aap ye propose kar rahe? Because is case mein phir jo jo fear aata hai woh ye aata hai particularly for developing economies like Pakistan ke how do you trust the government? The government more often than not is the most inefficient spender of your money versus you know the private sector. To how do you reconcile with that?
Dekhein isme abhi jo ho raha hai na, ye jo baat ho rahi hai na government create karegi to bahut zyada create kar degi. To abhi yahi surat-e-hal hai. Is waqt Pakistan ke andar pichle 50 saalon ke andar jo money create hui hai, halanke ye technocrats baithe hue hain na State Bank ke andar jo interest rate ke through control kar rahe hain ya commercial bank ko aapne create karne ki power di hui hai. To pichle 50 saalon mein jo average money creation badhi hai woh 15% per annum se badhi hai. Theek hai? Iska matlab hai ke total money 50 saalon mein 1200 guna badh chuki hai, 1200 guna. 1200 times. Aur jo real production badhi hai woh kyunke sirf teen char percent se badh rahi hai to woh real production nine times badhi hai. To agar aap 1200 ko nine se divide karein to har cheez 100 guna mehangi ho gayi hai. Yani ek roti ke jo aaj 25 rupaye ki Islamabad mein mil rahi hai, woh shayad 1975 ke andar 25 paise ki hogi kyunke aapne har cheez 100 guna mehangi kar di hai. Log kahenge shayad ye to aise hi hota hai, inflation aise hi hai lekin ye system ka woh hai aur inflation ke andar bhi ye yaad rakhein ke inflation jo hai na woh jabhi bhi hoga money ka phailao badhayenge to usme usme kuch winners hote hain, kuch losers hote hain. Yani ye nahi hota ke aap kahein ke sabko nuksaan ho raha hai, sabko fayda ho raha hai, aisa nahi hai. Inflation jab ho raha hota hai jo asset owners hote hain unhein fayda kya ho raha hota hai? Unke assets ki qeematein badhti hain. Chahe woh stock ke andar paise pade hon, chahe real estate ke andar ho, makan ho, unko fayda ho raha hota hai, woh winners hote hain inflation ke. Aur woh log ke jo fixed income ke upar hain, savers hain ya retirees hain unko nuksaan ho raha hota hai kyunke unki purchasing power aapne gira di. Agar woh cheez jo hai woh lakh rupaye mein pichle saal khareedte the ab woh uske liye unko 1,15,000 rupaye chahiye. To ye jo jo inflation ka jo system hai is ye ye nahi hai ke aap kahein ke abhi koi system theek chal raha hai jo commercial bank ko diya ja raha hai. Isme ek aur bada masla ye hai ke dekhein responsibility unke paas nahi hai. Agar aap kahein ke kal difa ka kaam hum privatize kar dein ya hum passport issuance ka kaam privatize kar dein, theek hai? To ye aap kabhi bhi nahi karenge, aap kahenge ye state ka kaam hai, infrastructure banana state ka kaam hai. Usi tareeqe se public ye jo money hai na woh public good hai. Iski jo hai isko recently pichle 100-150 saalon mein gayi hai aur iska bada humne hai money bade kharab asar dekha hai. To aisa nahi hai ke abhi koi halat behtar hain, abhi yahi hai ke aap bahut inflation seh rahe hain, debt mein alag ja rahe hain, mehangai alag ho rahi hai aur ye sirf Pakistan ke saath masla nahi hai, hum duniya bhar mein bhi dekhein to shayad wahan pe unhone inflation ka tareeqa aisa rakha hua hai ke woh aapko bahut waazeh taur pe nazar nahi aa raha hota lekin aaj se 50-60 saal pehle ab main aapko UK ki baat karoon, UK mein 1970 se 20 tak taqreeban har saal 7-8-10% unki money badhi hai aur unka jo hai woh jo jo production hai woh shayad 2% se badh rahi hai, GDP jo growth hai. To mehangai wahan pe hui hai magar woh saare paise wahan chale gaye hain real estate ke andar. Log jo apne makanon mein rehte the, woh kirayon pe chale gaye hain, mortgages hain, makanon ki qeematein betahasha badh gayi hain. To woh aapko bada heavy impact kar raha hai isliye ke ye nahi hai ke aap sirf khana peena kar rahe hote hain, shayad advanced countries mein khana peena aapko mil jaye magar woh makan aur uska bada heavy cost usko aapko aa rahi hai. To ye to kehna ke bhai government zyada kar degi, aisa to matlab ye aaj ke halat to bahut aise hi hoga jo aaj ke halat hain. Achha government ka hum ye keh rahe hain ke jo sovereign currency ki baat kar rahe hain, ek to maine aapko tareekhi humne baat kari, sovereign currency ke dekhein do tareeqe is waqt hote hain. Pehle hum technical baat kar lete hain phir hum ye dekhte hain ke bhai government kis tarah se isko karegi aur hamara proposal kya hai. Dekhein ek tareeqa to ye ho sakta hai kyunke aap technology ki cheezein karte rehte hain to ek tareeqa to ye ho sakta hai ke aap ek exclusive jo hai woh jo central bank digital money bana lein. Sabko mana kar dein, usi mein transaction ho jis tarah se cash ki transaction hoti hain, us tarah saare bankon ki transaction central bank digital money mein ho rahi hon, theek hai? Sab logon ki transaction aapas mein har ek ka account hai State Bank ke andar aur transaction ho rahi hon. Achha usme kya hai ke ye usme ek to ye nuksaan ye hai ke jo aapki innovation hai bankon ki, woh khatam ho jati hai. Aur jo har cheez centralize ho jati hai, zahir hai aap koi centralize karein aur aapko bahut bade bade servers chahiye honge, khasi aur is tarah ke masail honge centralize karne ke. Aur maghribi duniya mein iski mukhalifat isliye bhi bahut ho rahi hai kyunke ye programmed hogi to aapki har transaction check kar rahi hogi state. To ek ye masla unke liye bahut hai ke ji liberty ke hawale ke bhai har cheez mein hamari check ho rahi hai iske andar, woh bhi galat hai. Full reserve banking ye keh raha hai jo ek tarah se kaam wahi kar raha hai magar full reserve banking ye keh raha hai ke bank jo abhi 5% central bank mein rakhte hain paisa jo reserve, unko 100% rakhna hai. To effectively agar mere paas bank mein mere bank mein 10 lakh rupaye rakhein hain aur mizan aur jo hum for example Habib Bank ki misal le lein, 5 trillion ke unke deposits hain to Habib Bank ke 5 trillion ka account State Bank ke andar hona chahiye. Theek hai? To iska matlab ye hai ke bank money create nahi kar sakenge. Achha bank kaise kaam karenge iske andar? Bank is tarah se kaam karenge ke bankon ke do section honge. Ek unka deposit section ya money section jisme woh aapas mein transaction kar rahe honge na ke yani maine aapko payment kar di, aapne unko payment kar di, bank expand nahi kar rahe, woh aap koi store kar rahe hain jo money ke dekhein do khusoosiyat hain, ek store of value, aapne store rakkha hua hai aur ek medium of exchange, ye kaam achhi tareeqe se woh kar rahe honge. Doosra bankon ka section hoga investment section yani aapne mutual fund dekha hoga ya aapne to woh fund jo hai bankon ka kaam hoga jo real kaam hai yani hum kehte hain na bankon ko hum padhte the ke logon ki savings jama karte hain aur aage jaake invest karte hain, aaj woh ye nahi kar rahe. Aaj woh ye kar rahe hain ke woh double entry se money create kar rahe hain aur usse paise woh kar rahe hain. Yani agar interest rate kam honge to money zyada create karna shuru kar denge aur interest rate zyada honge to woh kam karenge to woh real saving ke upar nahi ho raha. Investment bank ye karenge ke woh real saving ke upar kar rahe honge yani agar kisi ne ko invest karna hai, hamare proposal mein ye hai ke aapko deposit ke upar money ke upar koi interest, koi profit nahi milega kyunke aap baithe-baithe jo hai woh aapko paise nahi milne chahiye lekin aapko fayda kya hoga ke abhi aapko Pakistan ke andar for example bank 7-8% de rahe hain magar aapka nuksaan zyada ho raha hai isliye ke aapka 10% inflation ho jata hai to aapko nazar mein ye lag raha hai ke kuch mil raha hai lekin actually nuksaan ho raha hai uske andar. Full reserve banking ke andar kyunke money ki creation us tarah se nahi ho rahi hogi jo abhi ho rahi hai jo bahut expansion ho rahi hai to aapka inflation se aapki money ka nuksaan nahi ho raha hoga. Lekin agar koi chahe ke bhai mujhe invest karna hai to phir woh investment kar sakta hai, uske account se woh paise nikal ke kahin aur chale jayenge. Main aapko ek chhoti si misal doon jaise ek aaj bewa hai, ek usne bank mein 50 lakh rupaye rakhwaye hue hain aur usko saal mein taqreeban aap samjhein ke 10% ke hisab se 5 lakh rupaye mil jate hain, usse uska guzara ho raha hai, theek hai? Lekin woh usko ye samajh mein nahi aa raha ke 50 lakh ki value har saal 15% se gir jati hai. Yani agar usne ek flat ke jo 10 saal pehle usne khareeda tha agar woh 50 lakh ka tha to ab woh flat ki qeemat 1.5 crore rupaye pahunch chuki hogi to usko nuksaan ho raha hai. To isme agar usko yani uske paise deposit account mein rakhwa sakti hai, ab usko investment karna hai to uske account se paise nikal jayenge yani 50 lakh rupaye rakhein hain, usne kaha ke main 50 lakh ko invest karna chahti hoon, uske account mein se minus ho jayenge aur woh kisi company ke account mein chale jayenge yani jis tarah 5,000 ka note hota hai na, maine aapko diya aapke paas chala gaya, aapne kisi aur ko diya, isi tareeqe se electronic money full reserve ke andar uske account se niklenge, kisi aur ke account mein jayenge aur wahan se usko profit aa raha hoga. Yani bank jo hai na real savings ke upar investment kar rahe honge. Aapka jo doosra sawal hai woh main aapko zaroor ispe discuss kar loon ke government kyun isme zyada nahi karegi. Dekhein is is proposal mein ye hai ke government ki jo woh hai yani government ko jo money print karni hogi ya money electronic money generate karni hogi, woh sirf utni hi karni hogi jitni uski GDP growth hai. Hamare proposal mein agar aapki 4% GDP hai growth ho rahi hai to aap 4% money create karenge ya 5% ho rahi hai to 5% money create karenge. Jis tarah se aap yani aapko pata hai na jab cash create karta karti hai bank, government to 5,000 rupaye ka jo hai note create kiya, usme unki do teen rupaye cost aati hai, baqiya woh profit hota hai, seigniorage profit state ko ja raha hota hai. Lekin ye profit ye kyunki bahut kam isliye hai ke hard currency bahut thodi si create ho rahi hai. Duniya mein 5% create ho rahi hai, agar ye poori electronic money bhi State Bank ke paas aa jati hai, central bank ke paas aa jati hai to create karne ka hamara proposal bada simple hai ke jitni aapki GDP growth hai jitne assets mein aapka increase ho raha hai sirf aap utni hi karenge. Aur usse jo hai woh aap aur woh itni badi yani Pakistan ki usme main aapko context mein bataoon ke agar hum char paanch percent money create karein, abhi to 15% ho rahi hai na, 5% ka matlab ye hai ke ye 2,000 billion ka amount banta hai. Har Pakistan mein jo ghareeb family hai usko 20,000 rupaye mahine ke de sakte hain agar aap ye 5% money create karein. Aur doosra iska fayda ye hoga kyunke ye money debt ke saath nahi create ho rahi hogi, jis tarah 5,000 ka note to debt ke saath nahi create hota kyunke commercial bank to nahi create kar rahe honge. To debt ke saath nahi create ho rahi hogi to hamari aage wali naslon pe qarza nahi chadh raha hoga. To ek taraf aapne inflation rok diya kyunke aap GDP ke saath link kar diya isko aur doosra taraf aapne ye kyunke aap qarz ke saath nahi create kar rahe to aage aapki generation kyunke iska koi woh nahi hai justification nahi hai ke hum aaj qarze le rahe hain aur hamari agli naslon pe hum daal rahe hain ke aap pay karenge ye. Ye us waqt tak to sahi chalta tha jab tak economy growth par jati thi lekin jaise hi matlab ye system hi galat hai na.
Nahi, I understand. Dekhein isme mera jo question hai na jo jo follow up question ab isme hoga woh ye hoga ke I think principally and philosophically I don't personally to I have no questions at all because I I can very clearly see the utility. Maybe the audience might and if you guys have any questions, put them down in the comment section below. We're gonna do a version two with Kanit saab and and we'll we'll feature your questions. But mera jo hai na woh zyada falsafe ke upar hai kyunke hum humein ek aadat pad chuki hai ek certain space of growth aur ek certain pace of economic flow ko dekhne ki, right? Aur woh saara ka saara driven hai by easy liquidity. And when I say easy liquidity, aaj mujhe agar chahiye hai koi cheez khareedni hai to main gaya bank ke paas, maine kaha jaani cash de, maine cheez khareedi, ab main agle 12 mahine dekhi jayegi, right? To ek poora system uske around designed hai. Mujhe washing machine leni hai to woh main jaake uske hisab se main cash nikal sakta hoon, credit cards poore market mein exist karte hain so on and so forth. Ab ye saari jo ye saari jo utilities hain, ye saare instruments jo hain, they exist because fractional reserve banking exist. The moment aap us cash flow ko out kar dete hain, aap kehte hain ke yaar woh cash available hi nahi hai to ye saare instruments hi mar jayenge. Ab jab ye saare instruments mar jayenge to suddenly aapki ek bahut major consumer class hai jo ke out ho jayegi, right? So there is a there is a hit to the economy and there is a hit to the pace of growth. And unless haan aap ye kahein ke yaar hum jang-o-jadal mein chale gaye hain aur uske baad halat waise hi tight ho gaye hain, usme phir naya system laana aasan hai. Lekin in the current system how do you recommend ke yaar aap overnight ek switch to hum maar lenge, bahut achhi baat hai, but phir woh kaafi hadd tak ek idealistic khwab to rehta hai lekin usko realistically implement karna while you know bearing with the pain that it will cause to the average view like user. Kyunke hum to ye discussion kar sakte hain lekin ek banda jo baitha hai gaon ke andar jisko aadat hai jo ya jo let's say woh agriculture bank jo aapke hote hain different type ke, woh farmer jo usne apni poori accounting ki hui hai ke yaar saal season ke aakhir mein maine jana hai jaake usse paisa nikalna hai, usse maine seed khareedna hai, seed khareed ke maine apna kaam karna hai, ab uske paas access to capital kidhar gaya? So I'm curious ke how do you suggest ke jo economic modeling poori badlegi usko kis tarah se deal karna hai?
Dekhein ye ye bada achha question pucha kyunke aksar logon ke zehan mein sawal yahi aata hai ke ji market mein jo hai woh credit ya market ke andar jo hai liquidity khatam ho jayegi is proposal se, jo jo bilkul mera khayal hai galat khayal hai. Hum kahin ye nahi keh rahe ke ji bank aage investment nahi karenge, hum kahin ye nahi keh rahe ke aage jo hai woh banks paise nahi de rahe honge, hum ye keh rahe hain ke real savings pe de rahe honge. Is waqt government of Pakistan ki agar main aapko misal dekhoon to Pakistan ne pichle teen saalon ke andar bankon ne jo naye loan diye hain yani teen char saalon ke andar usme se over 90% sirf kya diye hain? Government ke securities khareedi hain. Aur khareed ke unhone yani government ko loan diya aur government ne use interest wapas kar diya yani ek haath se maine aapko loan de raha hoon aur bank government interest wapas kar rahi hai. Jab woh interest jo hai ya profit jo aap keh lein kuch bank Islamic bank sukook ke through lete hain to woh jab accounts mein jata hai to hum aur aap mehangai sehte hain kyunke woh money ki supply badhti hai aur hamari agli generation jaise maine kaha qarz mein ja rahi hai. Productive investment jab pichle do teen saalon mein khas taur pe interest rate jab zyada rahe hain to logon ne qarze wapas kiye hain. Aap samajh rahe hain na ke 100 mein se 98% mera khayal hai ek Dawn ki report mein tha ke jo naye loan diye gaye hain woh sirf government ki securities khareedne ke liye diye gaye hain. Jo ke koi productive kaam nahi kar rahe, ye jo galat fehmi hai ke bank koi productive kaam kar rahe hain, ye nahi hai. Phir doosri baat ye ke jo jo duniya bhar ke andar jo 85% jo credit bankon ka hai, woh kahan ja raha hai? Woh ja raha hai ya to government security
bhi mein jata hai, wo treasuries khareedti hain, sukuk jis tarah yahan pe cheezein hain. Doosra kaam wo ye karte hain ke wo real estate mein ja kar daalte hain. Real estate mein daalte hain to usse kya hota hai makanon ki qeemtein barhti hain. Ye nahi hota ke production shuru ho jati hai. Bare bare shehron mein, New York ke andar, England ke andar makanon ki qeemtein das das guna barh chuki hain. To wahi paisa... kyun bank ko kyun ye karte hain? Bank isliye karte hain ke dekhein unke paas jo paise pare hain wo short-term pare hue hain, aap shaam ko ja ke nikal lein. Unke paas jo pare hain paise risk-free pare hue hain. Wo aap ko ye to nahi kehte ke aap Meezan mein rakhte hain ya Habib Bank mein rakhte hain to aap kehte hain ke mera nuksaan ho jaye. Aap kehte hain nahi bhai nuksaan ek paise ka bhi nahi hona chahiye. Aur bankon jab jab ye do cheezein hoti hain to banks aage ja ke wo kisi productive kaam mein unke liye karna mushkil hota hai invest karna. Wo sab se zyada aasani ye hoti hai government securities pe rakh dein taake jab log mangein aap bech ke de dein ya real estate mein kar dein. Makanon ki qeemtein barhti raheingi to unko lagta hai ke hamare paas security maujood hai, theek hai? To ye current system hai jis ke andar productive kaam dunya, Pakistan mein to bilkul hi nahi ho raha, dunya bhar ke andar bhi bahut thora increase ho raha hai. Full reserve banking ye keh rahi hai, dekhein full reserve banking mein sab se bari baat to ye hai ke mein aap ko is mein hum sab se pehli baat ye keh rahe hain ke Pakistan ka debt eliminate ho jata hai, jo government debt hai. Wo kis tarah eliminate ho jayega is par aap samjhein ke is waqt bankon ka 5% rakha hua hai State Bank ke andar. Requirement ye hogi ke ab aap ko apna reserve ratio barhana hai, 5 se 100 pe lekar jana hai. Theek hai? Agar aap ke bank mein 5,000 rupay rakhe hon aur aap ko 1 lakh pe lekar jana ho, aap kis tarah lekar jayenge? Aap ke paas cash chahiye, aap bank mein dalein tabhi to aap ka account mark up hoga. Theek hai na? Bankon ke paas to cash to nahi hai. Aur unke paas kya para hua hai? Unke paas building-vuilding hain lekin wo choti hain. Unke paas 70% jo para hua hai wo government ke securities, unke bonds, unke treasury bills, unke sukuk pare hue hain. To unko apna account barhane ke liye wo sara ka sara jo government ki treasuries hain wo uth ke State Bank ki balance sheet pe aa jayengi aur State Bank jo hai wo government ki ek jeb hai, wo foran un unko cancel... effectively aap Pakistan ka jo 80% domestic debt hai jahan huge aap ka interest ja raha hai, 50%, usko aap eliminate kar dete hain kyunke debt khatam hota hai to debt ke liye aap ka interest khatam ho jata hai. Aur phir ye ke jo full reserve mein ek doosri baat ye kar rahe hain ke hum kya kehte hain aap uski growth jo maine pehle baat ki ke aap GDP ke hisab se karenge to mehangai khatam ho jati hai agar aap 4% kar rahe hain. To ye ek bara accha wo hai ke government ka taqreeban 6,000 billion ka interest ka kharcha khatam ho raha hai jo humne dikhaya hai 5.8 trillion ka aur 2 trillion ka wo money create bhi kar sakenge without inflation. Accha ab jo aap keh rahe hain ke kyunke bankon ka jo 70-80% to wo government ko de rahe hain, ye kaam to khatam ho jayega, ab bank real saving, real investment karenge. Aur real investment jo hai wo unke paas opportunity hogi lekin wo real money pe hogi. Yani dekhein na agar aaj Pakistan mein jo private sector hai, government ka debt maine bataya bankon ke paas 40 trillion hoga for example aur 10 trillion unhone private, 12 trillion taqreeban private idaron ko diya hua hai. Ye to abhi filhaal baqi rahega. Aur jab aap ye khud change karenge to jo deposit ka, depositors hain unko aap kahenge ke aaj se aap ko inflation to nahi hoga magar aaj se aap ko koi paise bhi nahi mil rahe honge iske upar. To un mein se taqreeban agar 25% logon ne bhi ye kaha ke nahi bhai humein investment karni hai aur humein paise chahiye aur unhone paise jo hai wo investment account mein move kiye, to abhi jo businesses ko mil raha hai, jo logon ko mil raha hai private sector ko wo taqreeban 12 trillion se 7-8 trillion increase ho jayega, taqreeban 60% increase hoga. Ye humne poori book mein increase kiya, bataya hua hai. To ye jo galat fehmi hai ke credit kam ho jayega, credit barh jayega balki wo IMF ke paper wagaira ke andar jis mein baat hui hai us mein bhi yehi baat hui hai ke shuru mein glut hoga yani thora sa zyada, zyada paisa hoga private sector ko kyunke ek bahut bari jo government ka poora window hai wo khatam ho jayega. To ye kahin baat nahi ho rahi ke aap yani accha to hum yehi chahenge ke businesses ko jaye taake production ho, growth ho, employment generate ho jo asal kaam hai. Phir kuch consumption ke liye aap le sakte hain, mein ye nahi keh raha consumption bilkul jo aap keh rahe hain washing machine khareedni hai, although ke wo bahut wo nahi hai ke aap consumption ke liye paise, bankon ka kaam ye hai ke productive jagahon pe kaam lagayein. To accha to yehi hai ke wo aap productive us mein karein lekin ye hai ke agar koi bahut zyada is tarah ka ho sakta hai to ijara wagaira type ki cheez kar sakte hain ke aap kiraye pe wo de dein lekin wo real saving ke upar ho raha hoga. Aaj ye hai ke bankon ka jo poora model hai na yani saare model wo sab ke sab contract kyunke unko money creation ki unko power mili hui hai to unko apne contract ke profit rate ko State Bank ke policy rate ke sath link karna parta hai. Hum humein hairani hoti hai na ke Islamic bank jitne bhi hain aakhir wo kyun saare ke saare jo hain wo unke contract ke andar neeche jitne bhi alag naam hon, State Bank ka policy rate kyun hota hai? Wo isliye hota hai ke unko bhi money creation ki power mili hui hai. To full jo abhi ka system hai us mein, us mein jab full reserve mein aayega to jo market mein liquidity shuru mein to barhegi, zyada productive kaam ho raha hoga. Ye kahin nahi ho raha ke liquidity kam ho jayegi aur is pe humne poora book mein na ek appendix likha hai. Taqreeban aakhir mein na koi yehi isi mauzu, is sawal pe kyunke mujhe lagta hai ke log zyada sawal ye kar rahe honge to wo aap detail mein ja ke dekhiyega, aap ke audience ko bhi mein kahunga to wo aap ko tafseel se us mein is pe baat hui hui hai.
Right. Is mein agar mein do recent examples dekhoon of 100% pe to kabhi gaya hi nahi to dunya ki recent tareekh ke andar hamare paas koi example milti nahi hai jis ko hum potentially study kar sakein aur kahein ke yaar ye accha hua ya nahi hua. Barring a small here or there, like Bhutan ke andar mujhe ek mili thi aur something like that. But Turkey ke andar abhi recently we heard a lot about inflation and then we heard ke unhone kuch certain accounts ke upar 40% reserve requirement kar di. Inherently what the the thought process here was ke again excess liquidity ko dry karne ka tareeqa tha. You know, ek aap ka interest rate hai doosra ye ke aap reserve rate barha dein to effectively lending kam ho jati hai. And then China ke andar 2010s ke andar jo essentially aap ka unka real estate bubble ek create ho raha ho raha tha jis ko break karne ke liye unhone apni requirement barha ke 21.5% ghaliban ki. Dono cases mein humne certain cheezein dekhein ke yaar kuch certain second-degree effects the jo ke us se hue. Sab se pehla ye tha ke money supply obviously decrease ki kyunke they were not hamara sara premise hi ye hai ke money supply ko humne control karna hai, decrease karna hai. To money supply obviously jab increase, jab decrease ki overall to in many ways liquidity decrease ki aur jab liquidity decrease ki to zahir hai ke masla jo aata hai na wo ye aata hai jo mein mera sawal bhi aap se isi wajah se tha ke ek ek cheez hai philosophy ki ke yaar iska ek overall top-down impact kya hai, mein completely us se agree karta hoon. Lekin doosri cheez ye hai ke humne apne consumer behavior ko train kiya hua hai aur consumer behavior kya hai ke yaar qarza le lo, cheezein qiston mein le lo. Ye consumer behavior ka ek ek poora system hai. Both in Turkey and in China, what happened was as soon as liquidity, short-term liquidity dried up, loan sharks emerged, unregulated loans started to happen because obviously aapne banks ko bol diya ke bhai ab aap jo hai na lend out nahi kar sakte, ab aap ke paas paise hi nahi hain lend out karne ka. Consumer jo hai uska behavior bana hua hai ke wo cheezein qiston pe khareedta hai. To darmiyan mein ek poori unregulated shadow economy aa gayi jis ne aake you know essentially aur agar mein isko even simple terms mein boloon, when there is not enough money to interest rate aap ka automatically shoot up kar jata hai kyunke market mein ab demand zyada wo karte hain aap se paisa paisa lend out karne ki. Again, it's a tough outcome aur uska usko kis tarah se karte hain. Inflation dono cases mein control hui, slow down hui. Again, it's good, hum wo karna karna bhi chah rahe hain. Banks ke profits decrease hue which is mere liye wo ek question mark ye aata hai ke yaar banks jab banks are controlling everything, right? All over the world as well as in Pakistan. Aaj bhi mein dekh raha hota hoon stock market wale jo saare ke saare aake bol rahe hote hain ke Meezan mein invest karo aur ab idhar invest karo, udhar invest karo. It's money making money, it's not really any productive value. It's literally just a very few set of people who have access to the stock market and they are benefiting from a rigged system. So I get it, but yes, these are very powerful people because there's there's an entire lobbying attached to it. So, it's not a bad outcome, it's just that practically implementing that becomes more difficult. And then the last and most important, I think, was the GDP growth always slows down because ab aap ke paas jab loans mushkil se available, there is an evolution now. Aap ye keh rahe hain ke yaar jo poora system hai, aaj mein ek businessman hoon, mein jata hoon, mein ja ke credit line kholta hoon, mein ja ke usko maal nikaalta hoon, mujhe pata hai mera cycle chal raha hai. Aur us mein us cycle ke andar na sirf mere paas as a business available hai wo credit line balki mera jo customer hai uske paas bhi credit cards aur bahut sari cheezon ki mad mein availability hai ke wo meri products khareed sakta hai qiston ke andar ja ke. So, even consumer exist kar raha hai aaj ki tareekh mein jo ke jaise hi ye liquidity dry up hoti hai to na sirf mere paas cash nahi hai, abhi to wo investment to is a different thing, wo to maine naye naye nizam mein poora aana hai, wo investment bankers itne available hain, poora uska jo infrastructure hai wo exist karta hai ya nahi karta, short-term mein mere paas ab wo loan ka capital available nahi hai. Aur jo mera customer hai wo bhi ab khareedari nahi kar sakta, to GDP growth to slow hogi short-term ke andar. And so that's where I'm trying to understand ke is there any ya aur is mein aap bilkul ye baat mujhe by the way keh sakte hain ke yaar dekho short-term pain hai lekin long-term gain hai, yehi hum recommend kar rahe hain. Ya aap doosri ye baat keh sakte hain ke nahi humne iski koi mitigation system banaya hua hai and I'd be curious to hear that mitigation system because we cannot avoid the pain. Agar hum pain logon ko ye bechein ke yaar koi pain bhi nahi hoga, sab fit ho jayega to wo phir pehli fursat mein jaise hi pain aayega na to log roll back karenge, kahenge yaar thank you so much, Allah hafiz, wapas jaate hain. So, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on that.
Dekhein pehle to mein jo hamara mera khayal hai ek baat reh gayi wo ye ke fractional reserve banking jo abhi system hai wo kya pain create kar raha hai, theek hai na? To us pe baat kar ke phir hum ye dekhte hain ke is system mein kya pain hogi. Dekhein fractional reserve mein humne baat ki ke jo main kaam hai ke money create ho rahi hai debt ke sath, qarz ke sath. To ek taraf aur bankon ko shauq hota hai ke profit kamayein, wo zyada se zyada loan issue karte hain. To ek taraf ye money supply barh rahi hoti hai jo mehangai hoti hai, ek taraf se qarz barh raha hota hai, theek hai? Dono cheezein sath sath barh rahi hain. Aur uske nateeje mein kya hota hai aur ye qarz jo hai na wo har ek ko available nahi hota. Kyunke bankon ka ka kaam ye hota hai ke wo apni cheezon ko secure rakhein to wo zyada tar government ke paas rakhwate hain ya wo bari companiyon ko de dete hain. Aur jitni bari company kyunke hamara jo poora qarz nizam hai wo qarz ki taraf skewed hai. Yani aap dekhein Pakistan mein is waqt profit ke upar jo hai wo agar tax mila lein, income tax, super tax mila ke taqreeban 45-50% ban jata hai. Aur yehi aap debt lein to aap ko 45% ki shield mil jati hai, tax shield kehte hain na aap claim kar lete hain. Isiliye aap dekhein Pakistan ke andar kisi bari company ne pichle kai saalon kai matlab mera khayal hai do teen 20-25 saal ko aap dekh lein kahin se jo hai wo jo capital hai wo stock exchange se nahi liya, sab bankon ke paas ja rahe hote hain aur uske nateeje mein faida utha rahe hote hain. Nabi Kareem Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam ke zamane mein na interest rate bahut zyada the jis pe inki sakht hadeesein thi, hai na? Ke us zamane mein tha Quran mein hai ke 'azafan muza'afa' 100 yani 100% ya do dugna aur chaugna, ek saal mein aapne nahi diya to... Aaj dunya bhar mein interest rate bahut kam hai. Poore dunya mein to aur aur uska wo kya ho raha hai, uska impact ye ho raha hai ke jo interest dene wale hain wo bari companies hain, government hain, wo faida utha rahi hain uski. Yani bari company isliye faida utha rahi hain ke wo 2% deti hain America, Europe ke andar aur us pe 10% kamati hain. Aur aur jo kya kehte hain government bhi le rahi hoti hain. Iske nateeje mein ye ho raha hai ke wealth jo hai bari tezi se concentrate ho rahi hai. Yani aap pehle zamane mein to Qaroon sahab the na jo Qaroon tha jo uske oonton pe chabiyan chalti thi. Aaj dunya mein 12 log hain jin ke paas aadhi dunya ki daulat hai. Aadhi dunya ki daulat hai 12 log ke jo shayad ek bari van mein baith jayein, itni daulat concentrate hui hui hai. Aur mustaqil concentrate ho rahi hai yani is waqt jo to itni heavy aur dunya mein jo yani aap samjhein ke agar 12 ko chorte hain agar 1% ya 2% total ko dekh lein jo top ke hain unke paas shayad 50% dunya ki daulat ho total. Aur neeche ke jo log hain bechare jo 50% unke paas kuch hai hi nahi, unke paas ek-aadh percent. Daulat bari tezi se concentrate ho rahi hai. Wo ek bara bahut bara masla hai. Phir sath sath ye kyunke jab banks jab paise create karte hain, bankon ko ye hota hai ke jab acche halaat hote hain to wo paise daalna shuru karte hain. Us se jo hai economy mein, jaise aapne kaha na ke wo Friedman ne kaha tha alcohol ki tarah ka hai ke pehle aap ko maza aane lagta hai aur uske baad phir jo hai wo agle subah jo hai museebat aati hai uski. To jab aap paise daalte hain aap ko lagta hai ke thori economy boom kar rahi hai. Phir jab wo hota hai phir aakhir mein jab bubble phatta hai to sab nuksaan mein jate hain to ye jo economic boom bust cycles hain ye bhi agar aap economic theory mein ja ke parhein to ye mainly banking ki money creation ki wajah se ho rahe hain. Phir uska ek bahut bara masla ye hota hai ke bank run ho jate hain jaise hi jab tak aetmad hai bankon ke upar tab to sahi hai. Aaj 5% se zyada log chale jayein bank mein, bank run ho jate hain. America, Europe mein, America mein dekhein har saal paanch-che bank poore financial cheez hi jo hai wo ja ke yani financial system hi choke kar jata hai. Aur kyunke agar aap jab qarz de raha hota hai bank to abhi aapne shuru mein bari acchi baat ki ke pehle to interest to choti cheez hai jab aap qarz hi poora hawa mein create kar rahe hain, out of thin air create kar rahe hain, to poori money aapne create ki aur aap phir aap keh rahe hain ke iske upar wo bhi do yani jab wapas aao to is pe sood bhi do. To iska matlab hai ke aap ko continued expansion ka model chahiye, har waqt money expand hoti rahegi. Aap ye hairan ho rahe honge na ke bhai money expand hi hoye ja rahi hai. Pichle mera khayal hai ke 25 saalon ke andar jo hai wo money koi 7% se world over barhi hai. Kitne guna barh chuki hogi aur uske muqable production nahi barhi. To ye jo expansion ka model hai jo aap samjhein ke har waqt aap ko growth chahiye, ye bhi ek money ka wo hai. To humne book mein na bari tafseel se ye baatein saari likhi hain. Accha ab hum full reserve banking ke paas taraf aate hain ke full reserve banking jo hai wo sab se bara masla to full reserve banking dunya bhar ka aur Pakistan ka particularly hal karti hai ke Pakistan ke ko domestic debt se bahar kar deti hai. Riyasat ka qarz khatam ho jata hai, theek hai? Doosra kaam hum ye chahenge ke jo abhi bahut thora private sector ke paas loan hai jo productive kaam hai wo barhega zahir hai. Wo humne bataya ke taqreeban humne book mein estimate kiya hai ke 25% logon ne bhi agar move kiya investment account ki taraf jo bahut kam hai, to aap ki jo market mein unke paas jo paise hain wo taqreeban 60% barh jayenge yani 12-13 trillion abhi hain to wo 18-20 trillion pe chale jayenge. Ab teesri baat ye hai ke jo aap consumption ki baat karein, dekhein do cheezein to ho gayi, government ka debt jo bahut khatarnak hai, ghareebon ke liye aap kuch nahi kar pa rahe, infrastructure nahi kar pa rahe, aap sirf sood de rahe hain. Government ka kaam maine aap ko bataya pehla din hi har mahine government of Pakistan jati hai bankon ke paas 500 billion rupay ka loan leti hai aur interest mein wapas kar deti hai. Mila ke ye 6-7 trillion ho jata hai. Ye aap ka bankon ka model hai, hum kehte hain bank bahut productive kaam kar rahe hain. Bankon ka model ye hai ke logon se paisa lo, government ko qarza do aur interest le ke government apne ghareeb awam ka pait kaat ke diye jaye. To ye to silsila full reserve ke andar bilkul eliminate ho jayega, banking ko ka kaam government ka nahi hoga aur government sirf kitni create karegi jitni GDP growth ho rahi hai taake koi mehangai ho na deflation ho, dono cheezein nahi hongi. Private sector ke paas jo productive hai us mein kaam paise barh jayenge. Albatta ye bhi zaroori hai kyunke humne full reserve sirf nahi likha, humne full reserve interest-free lekker likha hai. Dekhein na aapne, full reserve ek jo hai ek modern mainstream solution hai. Chicago plan ki aapne baat ki. Wo bahut abhi jo currently full reserve ko jo support kar rahe hain wo sab interest ke baare mein itne sensitive nahi hain lekin zahir hai ke hum usko interest-free keh rahe hain, hum ye keh rahe hain ke jo aage bankon ka jo model hoga wo profit and loss sharing ke upar hoga. Abhi wo nahi kar sakte isliye ke unke paas short-term money hai, unke paas risk-free money hai isliye wo debt pe hi jate hain. Aap dekhein na saare Islamic bank ke contracts kuch bhi dekhein wo debt-based contract hi kehlata hai aakhir mein kyunke wo qarze wali baat hi ho rahi hoti hai na. Ijara bhi karein to wo actual market ka kiraya nahi hota gaari ka. Wo State Bank wo loan ki amount hoti hai ya us pe investment ki amount hai gaari ki, us pe State Bank ka rate hai aur kitne saal mein qistein deni hain us pe qas bana di gayi hai. To is mein jo jab yani ye wala jo kaam hai jo ke private sector jo hai unka to barh jayegi investment aur real production mein hoga. To hum ye jo us mein jo paper hai uske andar bhi bara detail hai ke yani America mein jab unhone poora ye model daal ke dekha jo IMF ke paper mein to us se jo bank run khatam ho gaye, jo economic volatility hai jo baar baar upar neeche ja raha hai ye khatam ho gaye aur sath sath jo hai wo aur koi credit ke andar ya jo samjhein aap ke jo money ki supply mein koi kami nahi dekhi gayi, ye yani us model ke andar. Aur hairani ki baat ye hai ke unki production jo America advanced country hai wahan jo output growth hai jise GDP growth kehte hain wo 10% dikhai. To Pakistan mein growth to bahut barhegi zahir hai, matlab bara clearly barhegi. Ab baat reh jati hai consumption wali baat ki log jo hain wo consumption kar ke karenge. To mein ye keh raha hoon consumption abhi to Pakistan mein jo hai private sector hai to shukar hai ke bahut yani logon ne loan bahut kam liya hua hai. Total GDP ka na hamara jo bankon ka hai wo ek trillion hai, 1% hai GDP ka. Yani bahut bara loan bankon ne private logon ko nahi diya hua hai. To iska koi zahir hai ke ye jo aap logon ka aap keh rahe hain qarze pe le ke kaam karna accha accha to nahi hai ye ke aap ke paas paise nahi hain aapne ja ke matlab washing machine le li, aapne koi aur cheez le li, accha to yehi hai ke log save karein aur yehi humein shuru se bataya gaya hai lekin iska koi iska model ho sakta hai...
Falsafa... Falsafati ke upar aap se disagree nahi karunga, mera sirf yehi tha ke ye behavior to hai na, accha ho bura ho ye ek public ka behavior hai to us public ke behavior mein public ke liye painful to hoga jab unko us behavior ko chorna parega.
Nahi, mein keh raha hoon ye ho sakta hai abhi dekhein agar agar aap ye tay karein bank ke ji humein kiraye pe deni hai cheezein, jise aap ijara ya leasing kehte hain na. To aapne gaari kiraye pe li aur aap bank se kiraye pe le sakte hain magar wo kiraya jo hai market ka rate hoga. Abhi market ka rate nahi hai, abhi wo kya hai ke investment ki value hai, State Bank ka rate hai, real maano mein wo aap us pe ja sakte hain ijara leasing ke upar, consumers ko help kar sakte hain. To aisa nahi hai ke aap ye kahein ke bilkul khatam ho jayega iske andar, iske andar consumer ka ek portion rahega. Pakistan mein abhi insignificant hai yani koi bahut bara portion logon ko nahi mil raha. America mein to aap ko pata hai America, Europe mein is waqt jo bankon ka bahut bara portion jo hai wo consumer loans hai na, chahe wo household ho, house ke liye diye hon, gaariyon ke liye diye hon. Hamare haan total GDP ka 1% hai kyunke hum mein se bahut zyada log jo hain wo interest se wo hote hain ke interest pe nahi lena. To abhi to soorat-e-haal ye hai ke bahut kam hai. Full reserve iska option deta hai lekin wo option ye hai ke wo phir real maano mein samjhein aap ke koi leasing ki transaction ho, real maano mein musharika ho, ye na ho ke jo aaj ho raha hai silsila.
No, I understand. Um, mein we are almost at the one-hour mark, meri koshish aaj kal ye hai ke mein podcast ko ek ghante mein khatam karoon. Ek sawal agar mein aap se quickly thoughts le loon and then we'll do a round two, we'll take some comments from the viewers as well so that we can integrate that in round two. But agar mein aap se poochon, I don't know aapne Genius Act dekha hai jo US ke andar recently pass hua hai regarding cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. So, stablecoins inherently is the same fundamental principle of full reserve banking at this point in time. Wo ye keh rahe hain ke yaar agar aapne ek stablecoin issue kar ke kisi ko dena hai to uske liye it has to be fully backed by the dollar and you have to have full reserve. Accha, again wo cycle hamesha aise hi shuru hota hai isliye kafi log ye bhi keh rahe hain ke Genius Genius Act is the monetary reset jis mein chunke dollar ab aap ka trash ho chuka hai aur wo dollar jo hai na wo virtually uh uh itna zyada aap usko le gaye hain aur debt mein le gaye hain ke ab jo nayi currency effectively aap market mein lekar aa rahe hain wo uh uh ye stablecoins hain aur jo dollar hai usko aap over time itna zyada deflate kar denge ke uski value close to zero reh jayegi. Again, uska nuksaan mein wahi hoga jo dollar holder reh jayega wo bechara zaleel ho jayega lekin you know you have stable currency essentially as a as a new form. The reason why I'm asking you this is because mujhe na mein ab philosophy to humne last wali podcast mein bhi discuss ki thi aur us pe mein aap se bilkul sehmat hoon. Mera jo ab question iske upar aa raha hai wo zyada iski implementation wali leg ke upar aa raha hai ke how do you transition into it? Because I feel like ke jab aap bahut revolutionary ya radical change suggest karte hain na to it is it sounds great in theory but wo phir theory reh jati hai. Wo das, pandrah, bees saal guzar jayenge aur aap ek acchi si kitab likh ke aapne dikha diya yaar dekho ye bara zabardast hai kyunke mein pichle dino study bhi iske baare mein kar raha tha to do teen countries mein ye even aaya bhi. Switzerland mein for example 2018 mein ghaliban unhone ek poora referendum karaya aur bhi do ek jagahon par hua but kabhi bhi ye pass nahi ho saka because iske bahut saare different uh humne jo discuss kiya pain points hain, ye hain wo hain. Accha, usi mein jo evolution ab nayi aa rahi hai jis ke andar again central bank digital currencies bhi hain, jis ke andar aap ke stablecoins bhi hain, technology-backed uh initiatives hain, isn't wouldn't it make more sense ke while we transition to a new model jis mein slow and steady hoga na, itna radical nahi hoga ke overnight aapne kaha ji sab ke sab banks ab sara ka sara paisa wapas khaincho aur ab jo hai ji kal kal se subah uthenge aur sab change ho jayega. Would it not make more sense to transition into this new system of full reserve, um, by ensuring that the new products are coming, the new technology is coming, the new evolution is coming towards the newer form of banking, there we ensure these fundamental principles, rather than trying to change an extremely bulky, baggage-ridden banking system. What are your thoughts on that?
Dekhein pehle main yeh discuss karna chah raha tha ek toh hum implementation ki baat kar rahe hain na ke implementation iski kaise hogi. Toh humne is book mein discuss kiya hai aur zahir hai woh bada usme references, usme khasi detail mein yeh baat ki hai ke yeh bada seamless tareeqe se hoga. Aur yeh baat main toh khair humne toh apni book mein likhi hai jo duniya ka kehte hain ke 20th century ka sabse bada monetary economist hai, Milton Friedman, usne yeh kaha ke full reserve banking hai without any repercussion to financial and capital market, it can be implemented overnight. Theek hai? Overnight ya bahut soon isme kar sakte hain. Yeh woh baat keh raha hai ke jiski jo America aur Europe ke andar jiski baat samjhi jaati hai. Iska main aapko aasan sa tareeqa bataun ke kya hoga. Dekhein sabse pehle aap Government of Pakistan ya State Bank ke paas yeh power hai ke woh reserve ratio apni badha sakti hai. Theek hai? Uske paas abhi existing law mein power hai. Woh use nahi kar rahe, duniya bhar mein woh interest rate ke through control karte hain money ko, woh reserve ke through nahi karte. Toh sabse pehle State Bank jo hai woh ek apne notification increase kiya ke aap 5% raise kiya ke 5% se aap 100% reserve pe jaate hain. Ek change hoga iske andar, dekhein ek change hoga, woh yeh hoga government securities, government bonds, government sukuk uth ke State Bank ke paas aa jayenge kyunki unko reserve ki requirement poori karni hai. Yeh sirf ek samjhein aap jo raseedein hain woh uth ke paas aa gayi unhone cancel kar diya, government debt khatam ho gaya. Theek hai? Uske baad jo hai woh bankon ke andar zahir hai aap poochenge ke bankon ki kaise profit chalega? Usme humne apne proposal mein likha hai ke jo ke jo aapke jo deposit money hai jo taqreeban 30,000 billion ya 30 trillion hai, uspe aap 1% tak ki fees laga sakte hain. Theek hai? 1% fees lagane ka matlab hai ke 300-400 billion hoga jo aaj ke banking profit ka aadha hoga. Toh ek unka deposit section toh koi bahut zyada woh nahi hai yani samjhein aap ke koi aisa nahi hai ke bahut technical kaam kar rahe hain, idhar udhar payment kar rahe hain, store kar rahe hain. Lekin doosra yeh hai ke...
Fees se kya muraad hai? Fees se kya muraad hai ke jo...
Jaise jaise aapke jaise aapke ek lakh rupees... haan nahi nahi ek lakh rupees jaise aapne agar average balance hai toh aapko saal mein ek hazaar rupees dene hain bank ko. Theek hai? Average balance jo aapka poore saal mein hai, jo bahut mamooli si raqam hai aur usse banking ka taqreeban aap samjhein ke jo 300 se 400 billion unka profit hoga jo woh apna kaam kar rahe honge jo basic. Lekin aapko pata hai deposit section koi bahut bada ab toh waise bhi baat yeh ho rahi hai jis tarah se digitalization ho rahi hai ke log yeh keh rahe hain ke bankon ka branch network, isse koi talluq nahi hamare proposal ka, ke woh kam ho jayega. Hamare maa baap jis tarah se jaate the bankon mein ab nahi jaate, aap main saalon ho jaate hain bank nahi ja rahe hote. Toh bankon ko toh yeh aapko pata hai is waqt toh yeh keh rahe hain ke agle das baara saalon mein bankon ka network bahut kam ho jayega. Doosra unka kaam yeh hoga ke jo investment section hai ke woh real kaam kar rahe honge jo venture capitalist kar rahe hote hain, jo mutual fund wale kar rahe hote hain ke real paisa lenge aur us paise ko invest kar rahe honge jo real kaam hai banking ka aur usme zahir hai unka woh hoga profit toh jo real kaam karne ke andar woh apna paisa kama rahe honge. Toh iski implementation yani as jo government debt khatam karna bahut hi easy hai, fauran aap kar sakte hain. Government debt ka immediate farq padega government ke deficit ke upar jo 50% interest ja raha hai woh khatam ho jata hai. Yeh khatam ho gaya aur jaise hi aapne private idaron se jaise hi aapne 100% reserve kiya money creation ki power chali gayi unke paas se. Ab woh create nahi kar sakte kyunki woh create karte hi aise hain ke 5% rakha 95% jab unko 100% rakhna hai toh woh aage money create nahi kar sakenge. Teesra faida government ko maine aapko bataya ke woh agar teen, chaar, paanch percent money create karti hai jitni GDP growth ho rahi hai toh yeh ek additional form of profit hoga unke liye na, jisse woh apna jo humne kaha hai ke aap ghareebon ko dein taake aap ghurbat sabse pehle khatam karein hamare proposal mein yeh hai ke aap yeh kar sakte hain. Toh yeh iski implementation yeh main nahi maine bataya ke yeh Friedman ka view de raha hoon, mera toh bada conviction hai iske upar ke isme koi seamless tareeqe se hona chahiye isko, isme koi bahut bada masla nahi hai. Jo abhi masail hain woh kahin zyada hain uske. Doosri baat aapne Genius Act ki ki, badi acchi baat Genius Act ki, dekhein hum jo baat kar rahe hain hum do baatein kar rahe hain. Genius Act ho gaya ya central bank digital money ho gayi, yeh milti yeh yani isme kuch thode bahut points hain full reserve ke, magar full reserve ki jo basic baat hai woh teen baatein important kar rahi hai. Pehli baat yeh hai ke private creation of money jo hai na jo fasaad ki jad hai, woh aap khatam kar dete hain, pehli baat. Full reserve ka matlab yeh hai ke jis tarah se aap keh rahe hain ke koi bank money create nahi kar sakega. Doosri baat woh yeh keh raha hai jab aap money koi create nahi kar sakega toh kaun create karega? Sirf central bank riyasat create karegi kyunki yeh public good hai aur woh kitni create karegi jitni GDP growth hogi taake koi mehangai na ho. Zero mehangai aur aap dekhein agar aap is stability ho, aapko pata hai log na bankon ke qarzom pe main toh 25 saal kaam karta raha hoon, sabse zyada zaroori yeh hota hai companiyon ke liye ke demand ho. Agar ghareebon ke paas paise aayega woh khareedeinge toh poora economic cycle chalna shuru ho jayega aur stability hogi kyunki aapki money ka woh yani stability hai. Toh iske andar is yeh jo yeh jo proposal hai isme is tarah ka toh faida hai. Accha Genius Act wagera kya keh rahe hain? Woh yeh nahi keh rahe ke money creation mana kar dein, woh yeh keh rahe hain ke unko laga ke bhai bahut saari jo Bitcoin jo hai transaction kar raha hai toh hum bhi ek stable coin bana lein aur uske peeche jo hai woh aap one-to-one woh ho. Accha US ke andar jahan Genius Act hai wahan bhi unhone currency nahi ki, unhone kaha treasury rakh lein, matlab poora debt ke upar nizam hai, teen mahine ke andar treasury rakh lein aur woh kar lein. Woh basically woh compete kar rahe hain cryptocurrency ko kyunki cryptocurrency jo hai log rakh rahe hain jo internet pe jo transaction ho rahi hain na, woh transaction ko woh compete karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Hum yeh keh rahe hain agar aap Genius Act ko aap samjhein full reserve mein jaana chahein toh hum yeh keh rahe hain ke bhai yeh act jo hai na isme aapko rakhna reserve hoga, aapko treasuries nahi rakhni hongi kyunki treasuries hongi nahi. Isme aapko woh reserve rakhna hoga aur woh sab pe apply hoga. Sabse zyada woh bankon pe apply hoga yani yeh nahi hai ke private idare aap banane shuru kar dein kyunki hamein sabse pehle bankon ki money creation power khatam karni hai aur state pe leke jaani hai. Toh Genius Act ka aap samjhein ke usko aap usko aap principle le sakte hain, treasuries ko hata ke aap reserve le lein aur aap usko across industry apply kar dein toh aap yeh Genius Act ho gaya. Central bank digital money ka maine aapko bataya ke central bank digital money ek accha concept hai lekin usme masla yeh hai ke usme innovation khatam ho jaati hai, usme bahut zyada kehna chahiye ke surveillance shuru ho sakti hai ke riyasat har cheez dekh rahi hai. Toh aapke paas bada accha tareeqa hai, aap yeh bankon se keh dein ke bhai tum saare kaam karo, tum payment karo, tum store karo, tum innovation lao, bas tumhe money creation ki power nahi denge hum aapko kyunki money creation public good hai aur banking aapka kaam hai, aap investment kar rahe ho. Uska tareeqa humne kya socha hai? Yani full reserve mein kya hai ke aapke paas jitna depositors ka paisa hai, jitne account mein number hai utna aapka State Bank mein account hona chahiye, ek paisa bhi aap nahi create kar sakenge. Toh ek tarah se central bank digital money ka aapne faida bhi utha liya aur aap kuch currency daal bhi sakte hain lekin central bank digital money jahan bhi aa rahi hai na wahan yeh nahi ho raha ke aap private bankon ko mana kar rahe hain, aap keh rahe hain yeh bhi ek cheez hai yani ek optional de rahe hain ke hum agar digital money ki baat karein ke hum monopolize kar rahe hain money creation, banking ko monopolize nahi kar rahe, money creation ko. Toh bada yeh samjhein bada seamless aur kehna chahiye ke bada technical tareeqe se aapne bankon ka nizam barqarar rakha. Theek hai? Bank apna saara kaam karenge store, transaction, employment saari unki reh rahi hogi. Unke jo aapas mein do kaamon mein friction hai, dekhein main aapko aakhri baat yeh kahun ke bank mein na ke do kaam karta hai, bank jo hai money store karta hai aur transaction karta hai aur ek money investment ya lending kar raha hota hai, in donon mein friction hai. Bahut friction hai, kyun friction hai? Isliye ke aap short-term paise leke long-term dene pad rahe hain aapko. Risk-free leke aap risky business mein laga rahe hain, hum in donon kaamon ko alag karne ki baat kar rahe hain. Deposit money section bilkul alag hai uspe aapko koi profit nahi mil raha hoga magar aap transaction kar sakenge, money mehfooz hogi aur jab 100% reserve mein aapko pata hai ke structurally bank run khatam ho jayenge kyunki zahir hai ke agar bank mein ka jitna paisa hamare paas humne bank mein rakkha hua hai, agar aaj bank aapko pata hai run karein toh Pakistan mein shayad ek million rupees ka jo hai woh deposit insurance hai. Jab bank run hote hain toh logon ki haalat kharab ho jaati hai. Full reserve ke andar bank run structurally khatam ho jayenge aur jaake bank jo hai woh apna asal kaam kar rahe honge, ek unka deposit section woh alag kaam kar raha hoga, investment section alag kaam kar raha hoga. Toh main toh main humne book mein aap jaake padhiyega isme humne bade bade economists ka ki ka zikr kiya hai, Fisher ki badi mashoor book hai uska tazkira kiya hai aur humne yeh bhi aakhir mein chauthe chapter mein bataya hai ke fractional reserve banking is a yeh actually modern manifestation of riba. Riba mein toh yeh hota hai na ke 5% aap create karte hain, yahan toh poori money hawa mein create kar rahe hain aur Islamic bank fraction reserve ke through agar aap chahein toh profit loss kar hi nahi sakte, yeh humne bada detail discussion kiya hai ke aakhir abhi pichle dinon Mufti Taqi Usmani ka main ek jagah padh raha tha woh keh rahe the ke bank mudaraba musharaka kyun nahi karte? Aakhir profit wale kyun nahi kar rahe hote, inko karna chahiye, humne shuru mein ijazat de di thi ijara ki ya murabaha ki jo zara debt type ki cheezein hain. Toh main kehta hoon ke woh kar hi nahi sakte, unke paas structurally kyunki unke paas paisa short-term pada hua hai, risk-free pada hua hai. Aap kaise unse keh sakte hain ke kisi risky productive kaam mein laga sakte hain jab tak ke woh paisa aapke paas na ho jo investment ke liye ho. Toh full reserve ki implementation aasan hai jo aapne kaha ke Switzerland wagera dekhein duniya mein yeh baat toh sahi hai ke aap keh rahe hain ke referendum hua, Switzerland mein unhone nahi mana lekin Switzerland mein yeh jo mukhalif the woh yeh keh rahe the ke bhai hamara toh interest rate 1% hai, 2% hai, inflation bhi nahi hai, duniya mein sabse behtar banking hai toh sabse pehle hum kyun karein? Aur yeh unke mukhalifat mein log keh rahe the aur jo baat yeh hai ke jo yani iski iski kehna yeh chahiye ke iski jo iski base hai jo iski intellectual base hai woh strong hai. Iski implementation jo I am jo woh maine bataya poora modeling woh strong hain. Ab sirf baat yeh hai ke jo samajhna hai ke aaj ke haalaat kharab hain, ghurbat paida kar rahe hain, aaj ke haalaat kharab hain, debt badhta ja raha hai. Cheezein toh theek honi hain, honi chahiye, sirf hamara kaam yeh hai ke ab zyada logon ko pata chale, strong demand create ho aur yeh system change ho. Pakistan ke log is waqt daldal mein phase hue hain yani aapko ek rassi chahiye nikalne ke liye, 90% toh aapka maine bataya na agar pehla din government ka shuru hota hai, interest deke faariq ho jaate hain, ab daldal mein aap baithe hue hain toh aapko ek aisa technological bhi aur aisa jo hai intellectual side pe jo bade economists ki support hai usko aap padhein aur aur iski implementation seamless hai. Isiliye main chahunga ke aapke log na is book ko poora padhein aur jo aapke sawal hon, yani aap humne maine is proposal ko na ICAP ke andar bhi humne present kiya hai, ICMA ke andar bhi, PIDE ke andar bhi, khaase jo economic schoolon ke andar, mujhe abhi tak koi technical isme problem nazar nahi aayi. Log yeh kahenge ke bhai yeh hone hi nahi denge log kyunki vested interest hai, maine kaha phir toh aap log hamara aur saath dein. Bhai agar vested interest aapko lag raha hai ke toh aap hamara aur saath dein is maamle ke andar toh.
Main iske andar again main aapko baar baar isi cheez ke upar poke karunga ke iski theory ke upar main aapse bilkul argue nahi karunga aur aapne economists ka kiya, economists academically and theoretically are always great, very economists more often than not fail are the behavior aspect of things and the implementation aspects of things. Abhi aapne mujhe kaha bahut seamless hai, aapne chaar chaar paanch cheezein jo jo aapke is transition ke liye required hain woh toh bahut seamless hain, main abhi aapse kahun ke ek business hai, woh export business hai, woh ek credit line nikaalta hai, woh raat ko jo hai na 50 crore rupees ki ek credit line nikaalta hai, uski wajah se uska jo bhi business ka jo bhi chalna hota hai woh chalta hai aur woh do din baad jaake woh cash flow waapis kar deta hai aur woh is tarah cycle pe chal raha hai. Kal yeh implement hota hai, parso uske paas 50 crore rupees ki credit line ghaib hai aur 50 crore rupees theek thaak cash hota hai ya kafi bada...
Haan iska main jawab... haan iska main jawab bhi deta hoon ke dekhein yeh jo aap keh rahe hain na 50 crore rupees ka uske woh hai, pichle dinon jab 2021-22 mein na interest rate Pakistan mein bahut kam the na toh hamari saari textiles jo companiyan thi unhone badi investment kar li thi aur jab woh mehangai hui toh woh interest rate 5 se 20 percent gaye toh sab ro rahe the baithe hue ke bhai yeh kya ho gaya kyunki dekhein interest rate se control hai na, full reserve ke andar interest rate ki requirement khatam ho jati hai kyunki State Bank jo hai money ko directly control kar raha hota hai.
Sir, us baat se main agree karta hoon. Yeh aap dekhein yeh aap jo solution bata rahe hain na, yeh aap bata rahe hain ke jab yeh ho jayega na, yeh do saal ke baad...
Nahi nahi main abhi bata raha hoon.
Nahi nahi main abhi bata raha hoon, main keh raha hoon immediately jab hua hai toh usse agle din jo uske second order effects hain, un effects ke liye koi aapke paas mitigation ka koi tareeqa hai ya hum keh rahe hain ke yaar theek hai woh pain hogi un logon ko lekin dekhi jayegi?
Nahi dekhein, yeh bilkul iska aapka bada accha sawal hai, mera khayal hai iska accha jawab milna chahiye. Dekhein government debt khatam ho raha hai poora, theek hai? Pehli baat toh. Private jo debt hai na woh barqarar hai yani yeh nahi hoga ke uske paas 50 crore rupees hai woh aap le lenge kyunki wahi toh bankon bankon ko profit wahin se aa raha hai is waqt toh. Private debt barqarar rahega, theek hai? Ab baat yeh hai ke jab private debt jo barqarar rahega woh woh zahir hai ke un logon ka paisa hai jinhone investment ke liye rakhwaya hua hai na. Uske baad bahut saari log aur paisa leke aayenge ke bhai hamein deposit pe paise nahi mile hamein invest karna hai toh aapka private sector mein mein jo hai investment badh jayegi yani abhi maine shuru mein bhi kaha ke agar 12-13 trillion hai toh woh hamara expectation yeh hai ke woh 20 tak chali jayegi, 12 toh barqarar rahegi jo aap 50 crore hain woh toh barqarar rahegi. Ab doosri baat yeh ho rahi hai ke isko aap...
Mujhe yeh batayein ek second, Kamil bhai mujhe ek baat batayein, main keh raha hoon bank aap keh rahe hain ke yaar 90% bank jo hai woh government treasury mein paisa daal ke baitha hua hai, theek hai? Aapne 100% kiya, aapne government bank se jo treasury hold kiya hua hai ya bond hold kiya hua hai woh direct ja kar ke State Bank mein rakhwa diya, 90% wahan chala gaya, theek hai? 10% private sector ke paas hai.
Woh barqarar rahega.
Woh mere depositor ka paisa hai jo ke private sector ko maine diya hua hai.
Sirf depositors ka paisa nahi hai, dekhein usme usme us deposit ka paisa nahi hai, usme dekhein capital bhi hai 10% aur usme un logon ke bhi time deposits hain ya investment hain jo longer term pe hain. Yahan baat kya ho rahi hai ke aapko...
Nahi nahi mera sawal pehle yeh hai, mera sawal let's think of it like this.
Ji ji.
100 rupees, 100 rupees market mein maine 100 rupees bank mein rakkha.
Theek.
Abhi kuch nahi hua uske upar, 100 rupees mein se 90 rupees ka jaake us bank ne government ka bond le liya.
Theek.
Aur 10 rupees uthaya aur usne aake private sector ko de diya.
Theek.
Bank ke paas koi paisa nahi hai ab, bank zero pe hai.
Theek.
Ya assume kar lete hain 5% reserve rate tha toh 5 rupees usne bank State Bank mein rakkha hua hai, 5 rupees usne private sector ko de diya. Ab kal government keh rahi hai ke ab 100% reserve rate pe aao, toh jo 90 rupees toh usne waapis rakh diya.
Theek.
Bank ke paas is waqt koi paisa nahi hai, 5 rupees pehle pada hua tha, 90 jo hai woh bond ki soorat mein usne waapis diya, 95 ho gaya. Woh jo 5 rupees hai, woh kahan se aayega? Woh jayega us private sector wale bande se nikaalega ke yaar ab mujhe paise waapis do taake main deposit karwa sakoon? Which is why I am saying, ya toh aap yeh kahein ke yaar main 5% se 15% pe jaunga, phir 25% pe jaunga, aahista aahista structured tareeqe se main jaunga taake main space doon. Overnight jab aap change lekar aayenge toh usme bahut saari existing contracts, bahut saari cheezein break kareingi. Yeh toh maine aapko ek side of the equation batayi hai, iski doosri side of the equation yeh hai ke if I have built my entire business around the system of credit lines aur immediately kal credit line khatam ho jaati hai toh main wait nahi kar sakta ke pehle deposit, yeh poora ek cycle aap mujhe bata rahe hain ke depositor ab dekhenge, 'Oh ho, ab toh savings account band ho gaye hain, ab main jo hai na investment mein jaata hoon, phir uske liye poora paisa ikhatta hoga, woh 12 trillion se 20 trillion hoga, phir woh paisa market mein available hoga, phir main jaunga jaake main as a partner usme jaake bid karunga.' Main toh main toh 6 mahina mera poora business stop ho jayega, maine toh business hi credit line pe build kiya hua tha. So, that's what I am saying ke...
Main main samajh gaya aapka question, main samajh gaya aapka question. Dekhein yeh jo humne yeh detail jo teesra chapter hai jise Pakistan ki implementation hai isme poora isko detail mein discuss kiya hua hai. Toh abhi main aapko briefly bata deta hoon, dekhein bankon ke paas na do teen cheezein hoti hain jisse woh investment kar rahe hote hain, unki aap samjhein liability side ya credit side jo log, usme se aap samjhein 10% unke paas capital hai, owners ke paise hain, theek hai? Aap yeh samjhein ke 20% jo hai woh unke paas 15% 10-15% aise hain ke jo time deposit hain long-term hai jise aap investment account kahein jo aap nikaal nahi sakte, theek hai? Uske alawa unke paas 70% aap samjhein 70-80% unke paas deposit account hai jab chahein aap use checking account jise aap kehte hain, theek hai? Full reserve ke andar yeh nahi hai ke ji aap capital ko aapko rakhna hai bank ke andar, aapko jo 70% jo aapka checking accounts hain jo aap money ke taur pe use kar rahe hain, utna aapko State Bank mein apna account increase karna hai, theek hai? Ab usme aapki baat yeh baat sahi hai ke shuru ke andar agar aapki requirement hoti hai ke yani aap reserve 100% ka reserve ki requirement hai, shuru mein agar woh nahi hoti poori toh State Bank aapko mauqa dega ke aap jo hai woh isko gradually aap poora karein aur khaas taur pe dekhein jo jo aap ab aap uske asset side ke upar aayein, asset side mein na teen badi cheezein hain, ek yeh hai ke aap samjhein ke 70-70% jo hai woh government securities hain, 20-25% jo hai woh samjhein aap ke private sector ka woh hai, businesses ka hai aur do chaar percent consumer hai. Hum kya baat kar rahe hain? 70% toh fauran khatam ho jayega kyunki woh State Bank ke paas chala gaya. Jo jo private sector ke paas jo businesses hain woh toh baqi rahega, theek hai? Ab baat yeh ho rahi hai yani baqi rahega aur woh chalta rahega jab abhi jo existing contracts hain woh honor honge, theek hai? Agar woh filhaal interest-based hain ya woh is waqt Islamic banking ke jo tareeqe pe woh chal rahe honge, jo bhi rate hoga uske upar aur us system ko woh jo jo aap keh rahe hain hum 50 crore ki baat kahein toh aisa nahi hoga ke business business ke paas toh kyunki banking ke paas jab government ka silsila khatam hoga toh money ka glut hoga, zyada paisa aayega unke paas, zyada woh invest kar sakenge. Doosra jo isme jo baat...
Lekin unke money, ek second, money ka glut kaise aayega na? Money ka glut toh aap keh rahe hain ke aap ab bank lend kar hi nahi sakta, like you're you're effectively saying that lending business is finished unless...
Nahi nahi main yeh nahi keh raha hoon, main yeh keh raha hoon dekhein lending ko keh lein ya investment, donon ko filhaal hum woh karke chalte hain. Banking is waqt hamare jo hai na 30 trillion ke deposits hain, 30,000 billion ke.
Investment ek separate cheez hai. Main yeh keh raha hoon ke aap yeh keh rahe hain ke bhai lending business khatam ho jayega, investment business start hoga which is which will require a transition because if I am...
Aur shuru aur shuru aur shuru mein maine aapse kaha ke shuru mein lending ka jo abhi contracts hain existing contracts honor honge yani ek do saalon ke andar jaake, government debt toh khatam ho jayega, private sector ke jo abhi contracts hain ek din mein toh aap khatam nahi kar sakte zahir hai, unko aap gradually change karenge. Accha ab main jo aapko bata raha hoon glut kaise aayega...
Toh effectively aap yeh keh rahe hain, realistically aap yeh keh rahe hain ke bhai immediately hum 100% reserve full reserve ki baat kar rahe hain lekin hum actually keh rahe hain ke overnight 70% pe jayega, jitna bhi government ka hai woh waapis lekar aao aur iska taper-off period hai let's say 5 years ka jiske andar hum keh rahe hain ke naye koi tum contracts nahi de sakte aur tumhara jo existing contracts hain jaise jaise woh return honge toh we will look at a timeline of 5 years jisme hum full reserve ki taraf ja sakte hain aur 100% hamara State Bank ke paas chala jayega, is that correct?
Isko isko aap haan nahi main keh raha hoon ke isko aap is tarah se le sakte hain, although ke yeh 5 years ka nahi hoga, zara jo aage jab hum kyunki humne poori balance sheets wagera di hui hain apne apne usme aap jaake agar aap dekhenge toh aapko lagega ke yeh zyada fast ho kaam hoga lekin yeh bada bilkul baat sahi hai ke jo existing contracts hain woh honor kiye honor kiye jayenge. Ab baat yeh ho rahi hai ke agar...
Ab 5 saal ka agar kisi ne gaadi khareedi nikaali hui hai toh uski gaadi toh 5 saal ki nikli hui hai, woh cash flow bank ke paas jab cash flow nahi hai toh woh cash flow aage State Bank mein nahi jama kara sakte toh woh cash flow tabhi jayega jab woh saare contracts khatam ho jayenge.
Aur yeh baat aap toh jo main dobara samjhaun aapko ke yeh money kaise hogi, dekhein abhi aapke paas 30,000 billion ya 30 trillion ke deposits hain, theek hai?
Hmm.
Abhi hum time deposits ki baat nahi kar rahe, woh toh iske is preview mein nahi aa rahe, woh investment accounts hi hain, woh jis tarah se yani woh aap cash use nahi kar sakte, checking accounts nahi hain. Ab 30 trillion ko aaj aap keh dein ke for example aap yeh kahein ke ji yeh ispe koi aapko return nahi mil raha.
Theek.
Toh hamara andaza yeh hai ke kam se kam kam se kam minimum 25% log 7 se 8 trillion ke log jo hai woh kahenge ke ji hamein toh return chahiye, hamara toh kaam hi isi se chal raha hai.
Theek.
Toh woh jag 7 aur 8...
Lekin checking checking checking accounts ke upar toh aaj bhi return nahi mil raha.
Nahi checking account pe aaj aaj yahi toh bata raha hoon ke pichle 50 saalon se yeh hua hai ke yeh blurring jo hai na jo jo saving account aur current account mein khatam ho gayi, pehle aaj se yani 1980 se pehle yeh hota tha ke saving account se aap paise nikaal nahi sakte the aur checking account pe aapko return nahi milta tha. Ab kya ho raha hai, ab saare bankon ke jo saving accounts hain, saving account ka matlab aap shaam ko khaali kar dein, uspe aapko return mil raha hota hai. Current account sirf woh hote hain, current account sirf woh unhone kiye hue hain ke jisme aap bankon ka profit kamane ka tareeqa hai ke woh khud toh kama rahe hote hain uspe paisa.
Is waqt jo deposits hain usme current account mein kitna kitna hai aur savings account mein?
Dekhein main hum savings account ki pehle baat kar lein, savings account ki, savings account mein mera khayal hai 7-8% hoga is waqt, theek hai?
Theek.
Matlab woh aap mukhtalif bankon ka mukhtalif hoga lekin woh savings account saare checking accounts hain. Matlab us account mein jab chahein aap paise nikaal lein, theek hai? Current account kaun se Pakistan mein hain? Current account woh hain ke jo bilkul samajhte hain ke ji bankon se koi bhi cheez lena...
laate hain. Theek hai? Aur woh khaasi zyada bari tadaad mein, aap even main aap hairan honge ke kai Islamic bank mein jayein na toh woh aap se kehte hain current account khulwa lein aap. Bhai, agar aap Islamic banking kar rahe hain toh aap current account kyun kar rahe hain? Us ki wajah yeh hai ke woh chahte hain ke depositors ko paisa na mile, un ke profit mein increase ho kyunki woh toh aage loan us pe de rahe hote hain. Toh aap hum yeh jo full reserve ki baat ho rahi hai, woh checking account ki baat ho rahi hai. Jo money ki definition hai na, money ki definition mein checking account aate hain, jise M2 money kehte hain, M1 money. Ke jis mein aap, jis se aap transaction kar sakte hain. Is waqt jo hai, woh aap current account se bhi transaction kar sakte hain. Aur is waqt aap saving account se bhi transaction, dono ko aap samjhein ke checking accounts hain. Ek hai time deposits, ke jo aap ne longer term, 6 mahine, saal ke liye freeze kiye hue hain. Woh checking accounts mein nahi aate. Woh money ki definition mein bhi nahi aate kyunki us se aap payment nahi kar sakte. Toh abhi agar hum M2, M1 money ki definition lein jis mein checking and, checking accounts, saving and current dono aa rahe hain toh woh 30 trillion ke hain taqreeban. Theek hai? Us 30 trillion mein se aap aaj yeh kahein ge full reserve ke baad, jaise hi implement hoga, aap yeh kahein ge ke bhai is pe koi aap ko return nahi mil raha hoga. Theek hai? Lekin aap ko faida yeh ho raha hoga ke money ki value nahi giregi jo aaj 15% se gir rahi hai. Mil aap ko 7% raha hai, money ki value 12% se gir rahi hai, woh nahi hoga. Us mein se kai log honge jaise main aap ko bewa ki misaal di, woh yeh kahein ge ke bhai humein toh return chahiye, hamara toh guzara is pe hi ho raha hai. Toh agar 25% logon ne bhi move kiya apna from money to investment account, abhi existing, existing jo businesses hain woh toh baqi hain, woh taqreeban 12 trillion woh toh baqi hain, woh toh main aap ko bataya ke aahista aahista us ko aap Islamic mode of financing ya profit loss pe le ke jayein ge kyunki us ka full reserve se zyada interest free se taaluq hai. Aur woh full reserve actually enable kar raha hai interest free ke taur pe kyunki main bataya ke fractional reserve mein aap woh kaam nahi kar sakte, profit loss pe jaana aap ke liye bohat mushkil hai. Toh agar 25% logon ne move kiya paisa, investment ki taraf le ke gaye checking account walon ne toh is ka matlab kya hai ke is waqt jo abhi businesses ka 12-13 trillion ka amount hai, woh 60% barh jaye ga. Toh businesses ke liye toh paisa barh jaye ga khaasa. Yeh ek alag kaam hai ke us ko gradually jo hai woh kis tarah aap us ko profit loss pe le ke jaate hain. Kyunki aap enable kar dein ge kyunki ab paisa jo aaya hai woh aap ke paas investment ke liye aaya hai. Ab aap us ko productive kaam mein daal sakte hain kyunki dekhein hamare proposal mein yeh hai ke jo aap ka deposit account hai, money, woh 100% safe hai. Us mein koi risk nahi hai kyunki State Bank mein aap ka current account, jo aap ka account hai bank ka. Jo investment account hai, us mein aap ko risk lena pare ga. Theek hai? Risk yeh zaroor ho sakta hai ke aap kahein ke low risk lena hai mujhe, koi bewa hai woh kehti hai ke bhai main high risk mein nahi le sakti, main low risk loon gi. Toh phir kya hoga, bank woh wale saare jo paise hain, un ko woh ijara, leasing ke andar lagaye ga. Is tarah ke transaction jis mein andar risk kam hai. Lekin baharhaal us ko apna paisa nikaal ke dena pare ga. Yeh nahi hoga ke mere paas bhi paisa hai aur 10 aur logon ke paas bhi paisa hai. Phir kuch log aise honge jo kahein ge ji nahi humein toh high risk pe chahiye, humein high return chahiye, hamare liye nahi hai. Toh un ka paisa jise aap venture capitalists hote hain, mutual funds hote hain, equity wale hote hain, toh woh paisa phir jaye ga un companiyon ke paas ke jo investment karna chah rahe hain. Aur phir jo jo companiyon ke paas jaye ga, un ka arrangement baharhaal jo hai jab full reserve aap ko enable kar raha hai ke ab aap profit loss pe chalein jayein. Is waqt toh Pakistan mein profit and loss pe aap ko ek transaction nazar nahi aaye gi kisi company ki. Sab ke sab debt le rahe hain. Kyun debt le rahe hain? Is liye ke un ko huge tax shield maujood hai. Yani aap 100 rupay lete hain, 45 rupay ka aur us pe aap ka inflation, jise aap kehte hain na currency ko short karte hain yeh. Currency ko short karne ka matlab woh yeh keh rahe hain ke bhai is waqt loan pakar lo, baad mein toh is ki value waise hi gir jaani hai. Toh saare jo companies hain, yeh jo aap ko kya khayal hai ke jo itni heavy tareeqe se, abhi pichle dino na duniya ka ameer tareen aadmi ke paas 600 billion dollar hai, Musk, us se baat hui, us se us se us ne apni, woh aa raha tha, kisi akhbar mein, us ne bohat hi bara mehal khareeda apne liye na. Aur woh paisa bank se liya. Paisa us ke paas bohat hai, magar kyun woh bankon se use karte hain? Woh us ko utilize karte hain ke jo main ne aap ko bataya ke aap savers ka paisa pakrein aur us se khud paise banayein. Toh ho kya raha hai ke jo yani jo savers hain jo bankon mein jinhon ne paisa rakhwaya hua hai Pakistan mein, agar un ko 7% mil raha hai, 10-12% ka nuksaan ho raha hai un ko. Current account walon ko toh poora hi nuksaan ho raha hai. Aur woh us mein sab shamil hain, Islamic bank, un ko toh huge nuksaan ho raha hai ke aap ke paise gir jaate hain. Toh yeh jo current system hai, us mein wealth concentration aur yeh sab cheezein ho rahi hain. Jab full reserve mein jayein ge toh phir definitely aap jab yeh kaam karein ge toh aap ko profit and loss ke liye enable kar diya hai aap ko kyunki ab aap ke paas paisa jo aaya hai woh long term aaya hai aur woh risk ke sath aaya hai, chahe woh low risk ke upar hai. Toh ab aap jo hain woh debt ki jagah equity wala kaam kar sakte hain. Aap ne dekha na, agar aap is waqt Meezan ke mutual fund mein equity mein dalein toh aap risk lete hain na kyunki woh ja ke capital mein lagata hai, woh ja ke equity mein lagata hai. Isi tareeqe se bankon ka jo investment account hoga, investment account mein jo bhi paisa layein ge, woh risk ke sath layein ge. Us pe government ki security nahi hogi. Aap le ke aayein ge, aap yeh tay karein ge ke mujhe low risk lena hai, high risk lena hai, us ke mutabiq kaam ho raha hoga.
Nahi, woh I, I agree. I agree with all of those things. What you're doing is you're just jumping the gun in the middle of that transition. And that's fine because aap ka kaam hai ke aap ne core philosophy deni hai. Main ne jo main aap ko poke zyada is wajah se kiya because I am actually encouraging the viewer as well to do that due diligence and potentially, kyunki yeh koi ek insaan ka kaam nahi hai na hi yeh koi ek individual ne aa ke us ka saara solution nikaalna hai. Ek nizaam ki jab baat hoti hai toh us nizaam mein aahista aahista bohat saare different stakeholders aur nodes ikhtay hote hain aur phir ikhtay ho ke woh different different parts of that nizaam ko solve karte hain. Jis cheez ke upar main baarha abhi tak main qaim hoon kyunki aap ke numbers mein kuch thoda sa thoda sa up and down hai ke aap ne current account walon ko kaha ke un ko bhi...
Yeh zaroor dekhiye ga. Muzamil, aap zaroor na aap, yani aap ne toh dekha hai lekin is ko thoda sa jo Pakistan ki implementation hai us mein hum ne poori bankon ki balance sheets di hui hain. Aggregate balance sheet, State Bank ki balance sheet, kaise transition hoga, matlab hum ne, main ne aur ek doosre jo hamare Sohaib Umar sahab hain, Bahrain ke bank mein advisor the, bara detail is pe kaam kiya hai. Toh agar aap Pakistan ka poora proposal dekhein ge na toh us mein poori bankon ki balance sheet ke abhi kya position hai, kis tarah se transition hoga, transition mein tax ka kya impact hoga government ke upar, banking industry pe kya hoga, toh yeh hum ne saari cheezein detail mein discuss ki hui hain. Zahir hai ke is waqt hum shuru mein hum aaye the ke hamare paas kam time hai.
Understood. Understood. Again, wohi wali baat hai ke woh kitab mein bhi jitni bhi aap kar dein na, aap ek 250 million ki qaum ki transition ki baat kar rahe hain toh woh ek kitab bhi us ke liye kaafi nahi hai, us ke liye shayad 100 kitabein bhi kaafi nahi hongi. Toh mera point basically yeh hai ke for the viewer, when they go in and they go look at these things, har cheez ko critically ek ek cheez ko dekhein aur phir us ko identify karein ke accha yeh kaise hoga. Dekhein, step one, I feel like we are now beyond that step one, at least jahan tak mera taaluq hai aur meri viewers ka I think taaluq hoga ke they all agree with, they would fundamentally or principally agree with the idea ke yaar yeh jo jab jab un ko ek concept samajh aa jaye ga na toh un ko is se disagreement nahi hogi. Jo next phase hai woh implementation ka hai ke how do you make the implementation the most painless experience because agar aap ne na chalaang laga kar ke is ko push through kar diya toh pain hota hai. Hamesha jaldbaazi ke kaam mein hamesha pain hota hai. The smarter thing to do would be ke yes, naara baazi ke liye chaar jo fawaid hain woh toh hain but jo aath shorter term pains hain us ko baith ke discuss karein aur un ko bhi koshish karein ke mitigation kaise kar lein. Woh aap nahi kar sakte, main aap ko, I was poking you a lot but I do not think you have the capability, koi bhi ek insaan ke paas capability hai ke woh har cheez ko solve kar de. That is why I would urge the viewers to go, read the book, be critical, you, yeh ek us ka taqaza hai ke aap critical hon for the right reasons ke yaar main ne is cheez ko successful karna hai toh main us mein us mein potential loopholes nikaalta hoon taake main us ke fixes suggest kar sakoon. Being critical for the sake of critical does not do anything for anyone. Being critical for the search of a solution is an excellent thing and I think I urge more people to do that. But yahan par main is ko khatam karta hoon. I do believe, Khan sahab, ke aap ne you've done an incredible service not just to to your profession but but but to the to the industry, to the economy. I have been searching for something like this for a while now. I'm glad that it is available in book form. If you are still here watching this, I would urge you, yeh cheezein boring feel hoti hain lekin you know aap jayein aur ab toh bara aasaan ho gaya hai. Aap Gemini ko jayein, kitab dein, aap us se summaries banwa sakte hain. Aap Gemini ko ja ke bolein ke yaar is cheez ko transcribe kar do toh aap apne run mein ja ke us kitab ko sun sakte hain. Toh bara aasaan ho gaya hai content ko consume karna but consume zaroor karein kyunki it is an incredible, incredible thought. And I feel like in the times that we are now entering, we need to educate ourselves. Warna phir agar aap ko choona laga rahi hai na government ya aap ko choona laga raha hai ameer aadmi toh phir aap ki toh phir bewaqoof aap hi hain kyunki aap ko pata hai nahi jab aap ka system kis tarah kaam karta hai toh phir aap ko bewaqoof banana bhi utna hi aasaan hai. And therefore, sir, thank you so much for your service and what you've done. I hope to have a round two with you, Inshallah. I hope to hear some incredible questions down in the comment section and we can potentially feature them in the next episode. Khan sahab, thank you so much for taking the time out and coming on.
Bohat shukriya, aap ne mauqa diya apne audience se baat pohnchane ka. Is waqt hum yahi chah rahe hain ke zyada se zyada logon tak baat pohnche taake yeh discourse jo hai woh is pe discussion shuru ho, baat ho. Toh is liye main, matlab mera khayal hai bara accha ho gaya ke aap se tafseel mein discussion ho gayi aur aap ne bare acche questions kiye kyunki yeh wale questions aap ke audience ke paas aa rahe honge. Abhi main ne ek pehle woh kiya hai, us mein itne zyada critical question nahi hue the toh bara accha ho gaya hai, masha'Allah. Jazak'Allah.
100%. Thank you so much. And for all of you guys, let me know in the comment section below aap ke kya khayalat hain, falsafay ke baare mein kya khayalat hain, Islamic finance ke baare mein kya khayalat hain aur phir kitab parhiye aur us mein se dekhiye ke kis cheez se aap agree karte hain, kis cheez se aap disagree karte hain aur agar aap ki koi disagreements hain toh sawaal zaroor hum se share karein taake kyunki hamara yahan pe kaam koi tehreek toh chala nahi rahe Khan sahab ke yaar mujhe wazir-e-azam bana do. Kaam, kaam yeh hai ke us ka solution nikaalna hai toh aap ke sawaalat I'm sure will help Khan sahab in the future as well in future as well. But nonetheless, this is Muzamil Hasan Zaidi. Thank you so much for watching. This was Thought Behind Things and I'll see you in the next one.
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