Dubai's visa freeze on Pakistanis is about overstays, and he expects it to lift after October

A viral post and a real worry

The episode starts with a LinkedIn post by Saif Ali, a past guest on the TBT podcast. It said UAE visit and work visas for Pakistanis were being rejected. It spread fast across LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter. The timing hurt. Dubai’s season was opening, conferences were starting, and many Pakistanis had strong job offers from top companies. With a Pakistani passport, Muzamil says, “effectively Pakistanis are all banned.”

People blamed the government for not protecting their rights. Many felt depressed. Dubai had always been the easy option. A passport photo was often enough, and almost everyone knew someone there. So Muzamil looked into why it happened and whether it would last.

How the rupee crash changed the math

He traces it to the economic crisis of 2022 and 2023. The rupee fell hard against the dollar and the dirham, and many people in Pakistan lost their jobs. A Pakistani salary was suddenly worth much less in dirhams.

In Dubai, a typical blue collar job, such as a laborer, delivery rider or cashier, pays about 2,500 to 3,000 dirhams, often with food and housing covered. Before the crisis, many Pakistanis felt that was not worth leaving home for. After it, the calculation flipped. A factory worker or security guard earning around 40,000 rupees could earn 1,500 dirhams in Dubai and send home about 120,000 rupees.

Employers saw the other side. Instead of paying 2,500 dirhams plus visa and paperwork costs, they could pay a worker without papers 1,500 dirhams in cash. Cheap fares made it easier still. Emirates charged roughly 150,000 to 200,000 rupees for a return ticket. Air Blue, PIA and Serene charged 80,000 to 100,000, and cancelling the return leg refunded 30,000 to 40,000. Two or three months of work covered the trip.

So many people came on visit visas and found informal jobs through contacts, in factories, groceries and deliveries. Muzamil describes the delivery worker at the grocery under his own building. He was Pakistani and had come on a visit visa. “Now I am stuck,” the worker told him. He was underpaid, but could not go to the authorities for fear of jail, deportation, fines and a lifetime ban. Employers know such workers will stay quiet, and some abuse that.

What the UAE did

UAE authorities saw that far more people were entering than leaving. Muzamil stresses this was not only a Pakistani problem. Indians and Bangladeshis were part of it too. Pakistani numbers were higher in this period because of the crisis.

The UAE responded in three ways:

• A pause on new visas. No new arrivals while the authorities dealt with those already there.
• A general amnesty until 31 October. People staying illegally could come forward without the overstay fines that would otherwise run to 10,000 to 15,000 dirhams. Those without jobs would get a free transit visa home. Those with jobs could ask their employer to switch them to a work visa. Airlines joined in with cheap and free tickets.
• A crackdown. Authorities started visiting areas where they believed people were hiding.

By his count, about 20,000 people had already come forward, including Pakistanis, Indians, Bangladeshis and Filipinos. He calls the scheme a success.

What Pakistan can and cannot do

Muzamil is measured about the Pakistani side. “Authorities will never know the intention of their people,” he says. If someone flies out on a visit visa and disappears, no official can stop that by magic. He adds that if the government has made conditions so bad that people want to leave, that is its fault, and he does not defend it.

The new Pakistani measures include extra questions from immigration officers and airlines, and a rule that visit-visa travelers hold a return ticket on the same airline. The aim is to stop people booking a throwaway return. He understands why, but expects it to create needless roadblocks for honest travelers. In his view, there is little the government can do beyond bringing economic stability and growth. As the economy stabilizes, people will stay.

Why he expects the freeze to lift

Muzamil expects the restrictions to hold until the amnesty ends on 31 October. Right after that, from the sources he has spoken to, the ban is expected to lift. The UAE does not have a problem with Pakistanis as such, he says. Pakistan is a big market. Pakistanis were the third largest investors in Dubai real estate between 2020 and 2022, putting in $10.4 billion. Even if Pakistan’s economy looks weak, its richest people alone are a substantial market for Dubai.

He does expect some new friction. Visa applicants may need bank statements or a stated reason for travel, and same-day visas may take one to two weeks.

Legal routes, and a warning

For Pakistanis who want to work in the UAE legally, he lists two routes. A freelance visa costs roughly 600,000 to 700,000 rupees and lets you work with any company for a year. Registering your own company costs about 1.2 million rupees and also brings a visa.

His sharper message is for the poorer workers around his viewers: drivers, laborers and others being promised a Dubai job for a fee. He describes agents who charge around 400,000 rupees, bring workers on visit visas, seize their passports and place them in factories. Workers are promised 2,000 to 4,000 dirhams and receive 500 to 900. He has personally heard of people working for food and a bed, unable to send money home for six months. “When you don’t have legal protection,” he says, “people always abuse you.” Often, he adds, the abusers are fellow Pakistanis.

No reason for self-pity

He ends on perspective. This happens with Indians, Filipinos and Bangladeshis too, and with many nationalities crossing illegally into the US. He asks viewers to drop the self-deprecating line that Pakistanis are always running away. People took these risks out of economic desperation, and he asks viewers to understand them. He also asks them to explain the risks to anyone thinking of going illegally. “Legally, if they get the opportunity, 100%, bismillah, go and pursue it,” he says.